Over/Under Betting Strategy and Statistics for Premier League Football

Best Strategies for Betting

What are the value of Over/Under 2.5 goals betting in the Premier League this season? It is one of those football betting markets which sometimes gets skipped over due to lack of time spent studying stats. It’s easy to say that if Chelsea are facing Wigan for example, that there will be more than 2.5 goals, but one way to read the Over/Under betting market, is really to look for frequency.  How often is a team involved in a match which produces over 2.5 goals? Not only that, who are the teams which regularly hit those targets at home, but fail away. When looking for matches to back in the Over/Under 2.5 markets, you really have to look beyond the supposed big guns. For example, while Chelsea are banging the goals in left right and centre, only 50% of their matches have produced more than 2.5 goals. That is because the opposition rarely gets on the scoreboard against them, while teams like Blackpool on the other hand, who have a weaker defence but know where the goals are, regularly produce high results in this betting market. Nearly 90% of Blackpool’s matches have finished over 2.5 goals, so you have to look beyond the obvious. Here is a guide to the current standings and stats of the English Premier League, and the frequency of Over/Under 2.5, both home and away. It will help to guide you football betting strategy when looking for teams to follow for this market.

Home Matches

Over: Arsenal are well worth looking at in Over 2.5 Goals betting, as they lead the way this season in average goals per match at the Emirates. When Arsenal are at home, there is an average of 4.75 goals per match (with Arsenal scoring 3.50 and conceding 1.25 per home match), which is pretty conclusive. No other team at home comes close. The nearest to the Gunners in the stats, is Manchester United and Newcastle United who are averaging 3.75 goal matches at home. You were maybe thinking that Chelsea would be up there higher along with Arsenal perhaps? But the problem with Chelsea, is that while they have an average of scoring 3.50 goals per match at home, they haven’t conceded any, which keeps the total average goals for Chelsea home matches, down. A slightly weaker defence would really make Chelsea one of the strongest teams in this market. But they are not there, and that 3.50 goal average has been all done by themselves alone. That has included the odd big score which have pushed the totals up, so don’t fully be drawn into Chelsea in this market. At an average of 3.50 goals per match though, they are still worth a good punt at Stamford Bridge, along with Blackpool and Wigan who have the save total average because they have conceded so highly at home.

Under: Here, you are generally looking at the solid, tight and awkward teams at home. Think Aston Villa, who play out home games averaging 1.50 goals per match. They are tough to score on, and don’t have much firepower themselves. Even tighter than them are Midlands neighbours Birmingham City, whose home games average just 1.25 goals per match, which doesn’t give the fans much to cheer about. Remember, these are totals averages, between both the home team and away team. So Birmingham at home don’t score many, and don’t conceded many. The perfect team to back in Under 2.5 goals. Worth looking at too in this Under 2.5 market is Sunderland, who are involved in matches averaging at 1.75 goals at the Stadium of Light. There is profit in low scoring, defensive teams!

Away Matches

Over: This is generally where the weaker teams show up well. West Brom lead the way in total average goals in away matches, because they have conceded so much while on the road. Similarly, Blackpool come in just behind them. The contrast in home and away form is in evidence here when you start looking, as away matches featuring Aston Villa and Birmingham have an average of 3.75 goals per match so far, signifying that they really don’t travel very well. That’s in stark contrast to their Under 2.5 betting strengths at home. There really aren’t many teams to follow with a lot of confidence when they go away in Over 2.5 goals, with those four teams being the stand out names.

Under: Two stand out names come to mind when considering looking for a team away from home producing an Under 2.5 goals match. Everton and Wigan keep the averages very low when they play away from home, with Everton’s matches producing an average of just one goal per match, while Wigan away matches produce only slightly more at 1.67. That makes for a safe Under bet and should be followed over the season. Next to those stand out figures, Wigan and Fulham are the only other teams which come in a 2.00 or less.

Topping the list again here, with combined home and away averages, and it is not the high scoring Chelsea, nor their London rivals, Arsenal. Arsenal matches routinely produce an average of 3.50, but Blackpool matches have the highest amount of average goals this season, registering at 3.88.  The teams which make safer bets in your Over 2.5 goals betting are the ones averaging around three goals, and not just hovering above the 2.5 threshold. For this, you are looking at Arsenal as mentioned, Chelsea at 3.13, Bolton 3.00, Newcastle 3.00, West Brom at 3.13 and Manchester United at 3.63. If you like your percentages to summarise all of this then read on.

Over 2.5 Percentages
87.5 of Manchester United games have been over
87.5% of Blackpool games have been over
62.5% of Arsenal, Aston Villa, Birmingham, Bolton, Newcastle and Stoke have been over
Avoid Everton, who have a percentage of just 12.5% of their games being over
Sunderland make a good Under bet at an average of 28.6%

Other notable Over/Under Streak Bets
All of Arsenal, Blackpool and Wolves’ matches have been Over 1.5 goals
Man Utd and Blackpool have a 62.5% of matches ending over 3.5 goals
Neither Stoke nor Blackburn have been involved in a match Over 3.5 goals

Scoring Stats
Other important stats to look over when weighing up an Over/Under betting markets, is clean sheets and failing to score. These can be strong indicators, along with the information above, of to what kind of goal returns you can expect. Wigan and Everton lead the way in matches in which they have failed to score (4) and that is why they make safe Under 2.5 Goal bets. Chelsea lead the way with six clean sheets this season, and that is what is something of a deterrent in taking them Over 2.5 goals, especially away from home. Take a look at Over/Under 2.5 Goals betting at your online bookmaker next time you are looking around sub market betting. Study the stats, use our and guide, and you may find new avenues of profit in your football betting.