Cardiff v Swansea Betting Tip Under 2.5 goals – 12 January 2020

South Wales derby expected to be a tight affair

Sean Morrison /Cardiff City ©imago images / Focus Images 12.01.2020

EnglandCardiff City vs Swansea CityEngland
12th January 1200hrs
Football – England – Championship
Pick Under 2.5 goals
Bookmaker Marathonbet
Odds: 24/25 odds taken 1300 GMT, Saturday 11 January

It’s the second instalment of the South Wales derby as Cardiff host rivals Swansea. It was the Swans who got the upper hand in the first meeting this season, can the Bluebirds get some revenge here?!

Bet at Marathonbet

Cardiff City Preview – Can Cardiff find their first home win in over a month in their biggest game of the season?

This will be Neil Harris’ first experience of the South Wales derby having taken over as Cardiff manager in November. It’s been a positive appointment so far as Cardiff have managed to improve their form and league position since the change of manager. Coming into this game they find themselves in 12th spot but only four points outside the playoffs. Coincidentally, the team who currently occupy the the fourth and final playoff spot is Swansea. Cardiff can close to within a point of their rival with a win on Sunday.

Our betting prediction:

Bet at Unibet

(odds taken 1300 GMT, Saturday 11 January)

One of the biggest strengths of Cardiff this season has been their home form. Their 12 home matches in the league so far have seen them win seven and lose only one. That solitary defeat came at the hands of Bristol City back in November. The frustration for Harris will be the spate of draws they have had recently. One of which was against his previous club, Millwall.

Only West Brom have drawn as many games (10) as Cardiff this season. It’s a good basis to build on and if they can manage to turn some of those into victories then the Bluebirds will not be far away from a top six finish which would be a big success following relegation last season.


Swansea City Preview – Will Swansea continue their good recent run in the league and do the double of their bitter rivals?

Steve Cooper continues to do a very good job in his first season as Swansea boss. For all the plaudits that Graham Potter got before earning a move to the Premier League, Cooper has been able to steer the Swans into contention for a top six finish. Something that was never considered 12 months ago. A strong end to 2019 and a very positive start to this year means Swansea are in sixth spot but it’s a very narrow lead with a host of clubs lining up behind them, looking to take advantage of any slip-ups.

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In such a competitive league it was quite remarkable to see Swansea go all the way into December before losing an away game. It was a very heavy loss at the high-flying West Brom before another away defeat later that month at the hands of Brentford. Swansea exited the FA Cup at the hands of QPR last weekend, losing 5-1 to make it three away defeats in four games. Cooper will know his team have to defend better if they are to get a positive result tomorrow.

Cardiff City vs Swansea City Betting Advice

One of the interesting facts around this fixture is that neither Cardiff or Swansea have ever done the league double over their rival. That’s the opportunity that presents itself to the visitors after Swansea winning the first meeting this campaign. Harris, particularly with this being his first derby, will not want to be making history for the wrong reasons in a fixture that has such tradition.

Key Facts – Cardiff City vs Swansea City Betting Tip

  • Cardiff have lost just one game at home in the league all season (joint best in the Championship)
  • The Swans only two away league defeats came in the month of December
  • Swansea won the first derby of the season with a 1-0 victory back in October

You would have to be slightly concerned with the number of goals that Swansea have conceded in their recent away games, shipping 13 goals in four matches. If they can shore things up they will pose a bigt threat to Cardiff’s home record.

In terms of a prediction and betting tip, I would not put anybody off backing a draw in this game. My main selection, however, is for under 2.5 goals. Swansea have conceded plenty in recent weeks but these derby matches are often very tight. Four of the last five meetings have had just one goal. Seven of Cardiff’s last 10 home games have also went under 2.5 goals.

The best betting odds for Cardiff City  vs Swansea City

Cardiff to win: 11/8 at Bet365
Draw: 12/5 at Bet365
Swansea to win: 2/1 at Bet365