Asian Handicap Betting Strategy – How To Back Favourites

Simple alternative for backing a match favourite

Best Strategies for Betting

When it comes to football betting, we believe that the Asian Handicap opportunities really can add a lot of value to your betting experience. They are such a good way to bet on matches as opposed to just the traditional methods of backing an outcome in a match. As with any type of bet or betting system, there are no guarantees of winning, so you have to fully assess the risk involved with Asian Handicap betting just as much as with any other type of bet.

Why we like Asian Handicap betting is because it basically makes the outcome of a football match a 50/50 proposition as opposed to a 1/2/3 which you regularly find in straight single betting (home win/draw/away win). How this happens is that it gives a goals handicap for each team involved in the game.

Basically, the stronger side in a match is deducted goals while the underdog in a match is awarded goals. But what Asian Handicap betting does differently to regular handicap is that it gives you the opportunity to pick up returns from alternative quarter bets.

For example, backing a team with a +1.25 Asian Handicap will pay out a half-win if that team loses by just the one goal, or a +1.75 Asian Handicap on a team would pay you a full win if they lost by just the one goal. It is certainly a form of betting that we fully recommended taking some time to get used to and learn.

Asian Handicap Favourites

We are not going to go into full Asian Handicap details for this post because that would take up so much. Instead, we are going to assume a working knowledge of Asian Handicaps and we are going to apply it to a very straightforward betting strategy of backing favourites in matches. This is a very simple alternative to just backing a team in the regular outright markets.

Because we are talking about favourites here, we are talking about low-odds options and the key of course to this is securing wins. While this delivers a higher potential of wins because these options are low-odds it will only take a couple of setbacks to destroy what has come in. We’ll get into that more in a little bit. We are going to look at an actual Premier League match from September 2018 between Chelsea and Bournemouth for odds.

Chelsea 2/5
Draw 19/4
Bournemouth 8/1

We have here Chelsea who are big favourites to win the match. Those 2/7 odds are going to be dismissed pretty quickly as being low-value. But what we can do is look for slightly better odds through Asian Handicap betting and we do this by betting the stronger team at either -1 or at -1.25 there. Let’s look at the Asian Handicap options on those two outcomes.

Chelsea -1 = 2/5
Chelsea -1.25 = 3/5

So immediately you can see your prices have gotten a little better. We aren’t talking about changing the whole playing field here and turning low-odds into a high-odds option because that would mean your risk factor would go up exponentially. We are talking about just squeezing out a little more value for money in baking a favourite without piling up a great deal more risk.

Betting is all about that risk/reward factor.

Goals are the goal

So while these are still relatively low odds they are still better than just backing Chelsea in a straight single to win the match outright. For either of those outcomes that we would select in the Asian Handicap market, we would need Chelsea to win by two goals and this is where your own expectancy/predictions come into play.

Is it unreasonable to expect the Blues to win this by a margin of at least a couple of goals, at home?

Given the huge difference in odds between the two sides in the match outright, it wouldn’t appear to big a big stretch. In fact, we looked at the last five league meetings between Chelsea and Bournemouth and Chelsea beat the Cherries by more than two goals on three occasions, while beating them once by a one-goal margin (the other was a defeat for them). In the last six meetings between them in all competitions, the Blues had won 83% of those fixtures, outscoring their opponents 13-6 so the Blues averaged over two goals per game.

Chelsea -1
Win by 2+ goals = Win
Win by 1+ goals = Stake Refund
Draw = Lose
Lose = Lose

Chelsea -1.25
Win by 2+ goals = Win
Win by 1+ goals = Half Loss
Draw = Lose
Lose = Lose

So it would probably be a decent scenario to look at. The slightly bigger risk on the Chelsea -1.25 Asian Handicap, therefore, appeals quite a bit. A £10 stake would return £6 if the Blues won by at least two goals. But the beauty of the Asian Handicap is that with this wager if Chelsea won by just the one goal, you would only suffer a half loss.

Where to do Asian Handicap Betting

Not all bookmakers offer Asian Handicap betting so you need to look for someone who does like bet365 for example who have provided the option for a long time on their website. Always stick to a reputable betting site. As you will find with all types of bets you will find slight variations in odds on the same bet at different bookmakers.

Because this is handicap betting then you are going to need to do that all-important legwork of looking at stats and form.

Because you basically need to look at the all-important current stats to try and predict whether or not a favourite is in strong enough scoring form to cover whatever Asian Handicap deficit you are starting them off with. Again there are no guarantees but looking at form, you can’t account for a team having an off-day but you can get an idea about overall performance levels.


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