BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals & Correct Score: Are You Missing Out?

Types of Bets

As punters, many of us get into little routines and habits when placing bets. Most of us have our favourites teams to bet on, or our preferred markets to attack.

These markets are usually based around goals and, usually, lots of them. The popularity of Both Teams to Score (BTTS) and the ‘Overs’ section (typically Over 2.5 Goals) has continued to grow over the past decade, and these are now fast rivalling the standard Win-Draw-Win bracket in terms of the amount of money spent (and won) per week.

But what if we were to tell you that you could be profiting in greater quantity, pound-for-pound, by taking on the Correct Score markets, rather than simply opting for BTTS or Over 2.5 Goals. And here’s how….

Crunching the Numbers

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Quick disclaimer: this article was written after Gameweek 17 of the English Premier League, and so our figures are taken at this point.

There have been 170 Premier League matches played at the time of writing, and it is easy enough to find out the success rates of each type of bet:

Both Teams to Score has landed in 95 matches, or 56% to be precise.

Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 92 matches, or 54%.

And, to illuminate our argument, we will also add a few correct scores into the mix:

The 1-1 scoreline has landed in 24 matches, or 14%.

The 2-1 scoreline has landed in 27 matches, or 16%.

The 3-1 scoreline has landed in 16 matches, or 10%.

So far, so good. Clearly, the BTTS and Over 2.5 markets are almost identical in terms of their likelihood of landing in roughly one in two matches, while specific scorelines like 2-1 and 3-1 are a lot less prevalent.

But what happens if we take matches that specifically end with both teams scoring: how often do those finish 2-1 or 3-1?

Scoreline Number of Matches %
1-1 24 24%
2-1 28 27%
2-2 5 5%
3-1 15 15%
Other 30 29%

 

This is important, because clearly there are some fixtures that before a ball has even been kicked we think ‘hmm, this one has got BTTS written all over it.’ Of those matches, approximately a half end either 1-1 or 2-1.

There is an important caveat here: with the 2-1 and 3-1 stats above, we have grouped together the home team winning by that scoreline with the away team doing so. But generally, we can predict with some accuracy which of the teams is going to win 2-1 or 3-1 and which is going to lose by that margin.

The Odds are in Your Favour

Now, if we take a common price for each of these markets we can roughly calculate how profitable each will have been over the course of the Premier League season so far.

So we’ll say that Both Teams to Score in every single one of those 170 matches played was priced at 7/10 (clearly this will deviate for the teams involved, but this is a middle-ground average).

If we placed £10 on all 170 matches ending in BTTS, our net return would be £865 (£1,615 in winnings minus £750 in lost stakes).

Let’s calculate the same for Over 2.5 Goals at accepted average odds of 8/11: our net returns is £808.84 (£1,588.84 in winnings minus £780 in lost stakes).

Finally, let’s calculate the same for each of our three favourite scorelines….

If we placed £10 on all 170 matches ending 1-1 at average odds of 6/1, our net return would be £220 (£1,680 in winnings minus £1,460 in lost stakes).

If we placed £10 on all 170 matches ending 2-1 at average odds of 10/1, our net return would be £1,540 (£2,970 in winnings minus £1,430 in lost stakes).

If we placed £10 on all 170 matches ending 3-1 at average odds of 12/1, our net return would be £540 (£2,080 in winnings minus £1,540 in lost stakes).

Pass the Dutch

But this is the gold bit, and again it assumes with some degree of certainty that we know which team will win 2-1 or 3-1, rather than simply plucking those correct scores out of the air.

Let’s combine the 2-1 and 3-1 scoreline, or Dutching as it is known, at half stakes – and assume that we land in 30 of the 170 fixtures played.

So:

We place 170 bets at £5 on the 2-1 scoreline, plus the same amount on 3-1, at the average odds indicated above. If 30 land of which 20 are 2-1 and 10 are 3-1 (building in a factor of getting the winner wrong), our net return is £900: we win £1,100 on the 2-1 and £650 on the 3-1 (equalling £1,750), minus loss stakes totalling £850.

So, we have a greater profit margin backing 2-1 and 3-1 on the same betslip than we do Both Teams to Score or Over 2.5 Goals! This is without factoring in that we simply wouldn’t bet on all 170 matches to end this way; our success ratio would be higher because we would be selective in our approach.

How to Make the Both Teams to Score Market Work for You

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Of course, if you do want to persist with the Both Teams to Score market then fair enough, but you are going to need a strategy to help make it work.

Step forward William Hill, a bookmaker known for their generosity when it comes to handing out promos and bonuses. For goals-based punters the William Hill offers which really catch the eye are their ‘Acca Plus’ and ‘Acca Insurance’ promos.

The Both Teams to Score market is covered by Acca Plus, which hands out bonuses on top of winnings for successful coupons. This works on an ascending scale, so a winning six-fold earns a 10% bonus, seven-folds 15% and so on, up to a whopping 40% should you land a successful twelve-fold accumulator. You won’t get those rates of interest at the bank….

And those generous sorts at William Hill continue to give a little something back to their loyal customers. Should you take advantage of the Acca Plus promotion by placing a meaty acca, only for one leg of said wager to let you down, then you will be compensated with your stake back as a free bet! You really can’t say fairer than that.


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