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Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

I was looking through the sports pages of a newspaper yesterday when something caught my eye. I am all against newspapers using tipsters from the bookmaking fraternity but this one really made me think. Was I actually missing something? The thing that caught my eye was related to a HANDICAP bet. Each of two teams, playing away, were given a ONE GOAL START. Now this to me means that the bookmaker expects the sides to DRAW. Or am I really missing something! All theoretical stats tell us that the home team has, in theory, a 1/2 goal start. So any AWAY side starts at a disadvantage, so a goal start on handicap is a reasonable start. But does this particular occasion mask a more sinster attempt by the bookmaker to take the punter for a ride? It well might be so. The odds given for Both OF THE AWAY TEAMS TO WIN, WITH THIS ONE GOAL START WAS 9/4. The odds without the goal start would be in excess of 10/1. So taking the “offer” from the bookmaker would cost the punter quite a “loss”. However, anyone taking the”Offer” must only fancy the two teams because of the Goal start. Now this is what I find difficult to digest. If a team is given a one goal start it must mean that the layer is expecting it to do no more than DRAW, at best. At least, that’s how I see it. So if my assumption is correct the layer is expecting, at best, or maybe worst, depending on which side of the fence you’re on, BOTH TEAMS TO DRAW. The goal start given to each team then results in two away wins.

Here then is my “bitch”. the odds for the two teams to win on handicap by one goal each was 9/4. Yet the odds for the sides to DRAW were 5/2 and 7/2, almost 14/1.
I know the away sides might both win anyway, but stats are against that. As are results, except on the very occasional turn-up. This bet is in reality the layer offering TWO TEAMS to DRAW but offering lower odds than could be obtained against EITHER match to end all square. Not exactly Joe Bookie throwing his money away is it? As it happened Both the teams concerned in the newspaper article LOST anyway, handicaps included. It really does pay to scrutinize any offer from the layers, whether they’re sponsoring an article or not.

All that glitters is definitely NoT GOLD when offered by the bookmaker.

 
(This article was written on the February 24th by our expert Cyril but our editor was very busy and did not manage to publish until now. Sorry for that!)


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