Most betting systems that you look at will be some kind of progressive system. This is where you make a series of bets and follow rules/guidelines of what to do in response to the previous result. For example, you may make a series of progressive stakes, with each stake being doubled over the previous one until you hit a limit of four wins and then you start again.
Progressive system betting are usually pretty simple to follow but when you are looking at them it is so important to remember the big rule of them. No Betting System can guarantee results. It’s just not going to happen because of the randomness of the events being bet on. The best scenario of a tennis match, for example, is that you have a 50/50 chance of winning. That’s still a lot of risk and say if you are multiplying that over four stakes in a system, the risk increases all the time.
Rules are good
So if betting systems can’t guarantee a return, then what is the point? They are structured betting plans that do afford some value (we are not talking about the value of profit but in structure). They allow you to plan out carefully what you are going to do with your bankroll for example and by following one of the many betting systems out there, you are guided through your steps.
What these rules in betting systems do is eliminate that all too dangerous factor of betting with your heart. It’s natural in circumstances when you have had a couple of losses, to start panicking a bit and then you start looking for riskier bigger odds bets to try and recuperate losses. That’s a very unwise practice to follow for your betting and will normally lead you down a much deeper hole of losses. So the rules of betting systems tell you what to do in given circumstances. You know what is coming and there is a set plan to deal with outcomes.
Negative v Positive Progression
Naturally when you think about something being positive and negative then the natural tendency is to think that the negative is just bad and should be avoided. It is not necessarily the case really. It is just one side of the same coin of progressive betting.
Let’s look at the differences:
Positive Progression System = Increase of stake when you win/Decrease of stake when you lose
Negative Progression System = Decrease of stake when you win/Increase of stake when you lose
Positive Theory
There are two different trains of thought behind these two types of progressive systems. A Positive Progression system is basically built to try and get the most out of a winning streak while at the same time, but decreasing stakes when you lose, it will try to minimise losses if you go on a losing streak.
A very simple example of a Positive Progression system follows a simple based off a 10 base stake (at even money so that returns are doubled). If you correctly land the first bet, you raise the stake another 10 for the next one. If that wins you raise the stake by 10 again for the next bet and go on until you hit a loss. When a loss does occur you simply go back to your base stake and start the process again.
That is a very simple Progressive System based on the Paroli System, something we have explored before. However, while a winning streak can return nice profit there you can’t expect to just win bet after bet after bet. You are going to hit losses and not even a simple positive progressive system can avoid losses if the results are not going your way.
For example, if you were to alternate between a win and a loss over six bets, then you would actually be out of pocket 30. As with any system, it is great when you are winning and remember this is just one example of many, many positive progressive systems out there.
Negative Theory
So what is the thinking behind a Negative Progression? This reverses the positive by insinuating that at some point you are going to win and because you are increasing your stake after each loss, but the time you get a win, the win will compensate for the preceding losses. That all sounds good in theory.
When you glance over the Negative Progression theory it all seems to be based in sound principles really. You keep betting more until you win and it doesn’t matter too much about the losses because you will recover them. However, that all hinges on there being an unlimited bankroll. If you started with a base of 10 and doubled your stake every loss and you were on a five-bet losing streak then for that sixth bet you would have to come up with a stake of 320.
Again, we can’t overstate this, as long as wins are going your way then you are going to be fine in a betting system. When they are not, then your risk increases drastically and you are looking at stressful situations.
Progressive Systems Downfall
Bankroll is one downfall of any betting system. The other is Gambler’s Fallacy which is a whole other article. Basically, and we touched on this above, famous progressive betting systems like the Martingale system, for example, all expect punters to have an unlimited bankroll. It needs this when you are continuously doubling stakes for example just waiting for a win and this can escalate rapidly.
The other issues is Gambler’s Fallacy which is a belief by punters that just because you have lost five bets in a row, the chances are that you are going to win the next bet. The result of proceedings bets has nothing whatsoever to do with the outcome of the next bet. That’s all just down to random luck and chance. The only thing that influences the outcome of a tennis match, for example, is what happens on the court.
In Summary
Our thoughts about Progressive Betting systems don’t totally dismiss and discount them as being worthless. They can work for you if you are prepared to stick with them, but just be fully aware of the risks of losses because they will happen. Don’t be blinded by the basic theory of progressive systems that promise so much. Losses will still impact you and our advice is just to test them out fully without placing money on them first. See what works for you in terms of the stake and always, always have a set bankroll to work with and calculate how far that bankroll will get you in trying to chase losses if you are having to continuously double stakes.
