The Kelly Criterion (Staking) – Cyril’s betting advice (part 4)

Money Management & Betting Systems

I will give you my very basic interpretation of  the Kelly Criterion.

You stake your bet according to the "edge" you think you have for a particular bet. If the "edge" isn’t there , No bet.

However I think the professionals can do it much better. So just google, "Kelly Criterion" and be prepared to spend some hours reading the wealth of knowledge that is there. You’ll find at least two calculators which do all the work for you.
This is a good plan for anyone with a decent strike rate. It works on a percentage method so in reality you can never lose your Betting Bank.

Whilst I favour Level Stakes, a percentage plan will give you a very good run for your money, even with only 50% winners. For those of you who like something a little racier, might I suggest The Bookies Bank. I found this whilst surfing and it’s quite a good alternative to Level Stakes. Find it and others at www.thestakingmachine.com

Having now finished explaining my three Golden Rules it’s time to put them together for the battle for the bookies and/or exchanges, money.

DISCIPLINE.

My bets will be in just one chosen sector. Football. One match per week.

I will SPECIALISE with  Premiership games only.

My STAKES will be Level Stakes. (100 pts per match). Using a round figure like this will make it easier to explain examples and bets.

To arrive at my weekly selection I will use different forms of assessment. Taking into acount. Current form of both teams–historic form of both teams–odds on offer from a number of sources.

The Historic Form can be very revealing. Especially when both teams have similar form in the present. Just check some of the "funny" results that crop up from time to time. Usually an away win. When you check the Head to Head from previous seasons you find something like–  w1–d1–l5  showing that the home team had won just one of the last 7 games against the opposition.
Just give it a go. You’ll be amazed how often it happens.

There will be other things to consider to help make the overall stategies complete.

It is a MUST that you keep an accurate record of every bet. What, exactly, we’ll decide later on. Also you should attempt to frame your own odds for each game. This will help you to see when there is a real value bet.

After covering all the above, I’d like to turn to the Betting Exchanges. I’m really convinced that serious money can be made here. Especially when "trading" strategies are used. Could be a learning curve for us all.
I’ll be looking for feed-back on these. Or anything else that you’d care to bring up. 

With Flo’s permission I’ll post my Football selection each Friday night. As far as I’m concerned these selections are for research purposes only.


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