Just why do bookmakers offer you betting prices that are better than you own assessment of the event in question? Well the first thing to remember is that your own assessment of the odds could be wrong and you need to look at this possible situation first before you look at anything else. If the bookmakers assessment is different to yours or better than yours then you are going to lose money most of the time or at least be –EV with the bet. One such way to assess why odds could be better or worse than you yourself have worked out could be to do with preconceived ideas concerning certain matches.
There are many factors that govern why prices may be better or worse than you had anticipated. One such factor is in how the bookmaking firms are predicting where the action will go. Let us say that there is a match in the Championship between a team that has won its last four games and a team that has been beaten in its last four games. It is clear here when the bulk of the money will go on this game.
The psychology of the betting public thinks that positive events are sure to keep happening while negative events are the same and betting tips can also have an effect here. So the bookmaking firms may well contract the price of the favourite in this encounter and make it even shorter based on the volume of money they expect to come for this market. If the betting public are really going for a certain team then they may well take 1.60 when the betting firm may well have been correct to offer them 1.70 or even 1.75.
This is a delicate balancing act on behalf of the bookmaker and is akin to price setting in any other market. If the bookmaker pitches too high then the selection will represent too much value for the punter and be hugely –EV for the bookmaker. But if they contract the price too much then they will run the risk of losing turnover and not attracting any business. The force of supply and demand is all too real and when betting firms know that the punters want to buy (back) something badly then they will contract the price accordingly which is akin to someone increasing the buying price for products that are in big demand.
Variance in Sports Betting
There is a tremendous amount of short term variance in sports betting and so any football side that had won four games when compared to their opponents losing four games can hardly be considered to be certainties but yet they will be in the minds of many punters. It is well worth opposing these teams and backing the draw or a combination of the draw and a win for their opponents. If you can tap into the public psychology when it comes to betting then you can often spot value with certain prices or a lack of value which is also a very useful thing to know from a betting standpoint.
