Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks
3rd October 0840hrs
Rugby League – Australia – NRL
Pick Sharks +14 handicap
Bookmaker Bet365
Odds: 20/21 odds taken 0300 GMT, Wednesday 29th September
This is a one-off elimination match in the Finals bracket of the NRL for the season. The winner of this will get a place in the semi finals.
That will be against either top seed Penrith Panthers or 4th seed Sydney Roosters.
So there is no easy path to the Grand Final for either of these and there will be immense pressure with no second chances.
Table of Contents
Canberra Raiders Preview – Raiders fancied to make it through
The Canberra Raiders finished in fifth place in the standings of the regular NRL season.
They were actually level on points with the double-Premiers the Sydney Roosters, but were down in the points-differential only.
So it has been a very strong campaign from the Raiders and Canberra are the 2/9 odds-on favourites to win this elimination match* (odds taken 0300 GMT, Wednesday 29th September).
We are not finding a great deal to argue that in NRL betting for this fixture.
They gathered some pretty big momentum over the second half of the season with Canberra, posting a W9 L2 record in their final eleven games.
The two games that they dropped in that sequence were, perhaps ironically, against Penrith and Sydney.
Canberra Raiders would be meeting one of those in the semi finals if they were to get through this match.
What makes this even more interesting is that the Raiders faced the Sharks in the final round of the regular season.
The Raiders collected a 38-28 win and that was their third win in a row over Cronulla. It should be noted that they rested pretty much their entire regular starters for that.
That 10-point margin of success was the biggest margin between the two teams in the last four meetings.
Each of the previous three had been settled (two wins each) by a margin of no more than four points.
A Canberra Raiders -14 handicap is at 21/10 and that looks a little wide for a game of this kind of magnitude* (odds taken 0300 GMT, Wednesday 29th September).
Cronulla Sharks Preview – Can Cronulla turn the tables on the Raiders?
The Sharks are going to have to pull something special out of the bag in this one.
Across the course of the regular NRL season, Cronulla failed to take a win against any of the other top-eight finishers.
That is a pretty big stat there. It was the eighth-spot that they took and had they won last weekend, they would have ended up there still.
But that loss last weekend against a much-changed Raiders side will have been a hit to their confidence.
A good fast start on Saturday would go some way to getting a little bit back on their side.
The Sharks are the 19/5 underdogs in the match outright for the contest* (odds taken 0300 GMT, Wednesday 29th September).
In the regular season, there was very little between the two teams in terms of scoring, the Sharks averaging a couple of points more per game than the Raiders.
Don’t miss out on other Betting Tips & Predictions
Click here for more Betting Tips
The big difference was in their respective defensive output, because the Sharks were nowhere near as good as Canberra there.
In fact, Cronulla conceded an average of 8 points more per game than the Raiders did for the campaign.
Of the eight teams that qualified for the finals, no team conceded more points than Cronulla did.
That’s a glaring difference and another was in their end of season form as well.
The Cronulla Sharks lost three of their last four games, each of those defeats happening against top-eight sides.
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks Betting Advice
The Sharks won’t likely have the defensive capabilities to stick in there and see this one out against the in-form Raiders.
The fact that Sharks didn’t get a single win against one of the other finalists is pretty telling in our book and that is why we have to oppose them.
The Raiders are likely to find the cracks in their defence once again as they did last weekend.
Key Facts – Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks Betting Tip
- Canberra Raiders beat the Sharks by a ten-point margin last week
- Canberra Raiders have won four of their last five league games
- Cronulla Sharks have lost three of their last four fixtures
It is a big one-off game however for survival in the bracket and we think that the way to go would be on a Sharks +14 instead for 20/21* (odds taken 0300 GMT, Wednesday 29th September).
Who knows what a good, positive start in this match could do for them. But at the end of the day, the most likely winners will be Canberra.
So a Canberra 1-12 winning margin for 2/1 fits very nicely for our NRL betting tip* (odds taken 0300 GMT, Wednesday 29th September).
The best betting odds for Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks
Canberra Raiders to win: 12/1 at Bet365
Draw: 13/5 at Bet365
Cronulla Sharks to win: 10/11 at Bet365
