England vs Italy
13th February 1415hrs
Rugby – England – Six Nations
Pick England -33.5 handicap
Bookmaker Bet365
Odds: 4/6 odds taken 21:34 GMT February 11th, 2021
England’s Six Nations title defence got off to a very rocky start as they were outsmarted at Twickenham by Scotland.
The Red Rose just weren’t allowed to execute their A-Plan and had no back up ideas to go to.
But they will be expected to put in a much stronger performance as they play to wooden-spoon favourites Italy.
Table of Contents
England Preview – England to get the lift they need
England were dominated at Twickenham by Scotland in the opening fixture of their Six Nations title defence.
The Red Rose were just not allowed to play the way that they wanted because of a brilliant Scottish performance.
England really struggled to get any attacking cohesiveness together and feel very, very flat in a 6-11 shock home loss.
That was the first time that England had lost at home to Scotland since the 1980s.
That’s how sizable of an upset that was. But this is the perfect game for them in which to try and bounce back and lift their spirits.
In the match outright for Six Nations rugby betting England are an untouchable 1/500 odds-on quote* (odds taken 21:34 GMT February 11th, 2021).
England didn’t have their most experienced, strongest side out against Scotland.
There were question marks over the fitness levels of the included Saracens players as well.
England actually went into the fixture with an inexperienced front row.
But they had still been expected to collect a comfortable win over the Scots.
It didn’t happen but they are likely to beat Italy whatever team they put out.
England have a perfect home record against Italy in the Six Nations.
The highest points tally that they have conceded in their home games against Italy in the competition was 23.
That was in the first encounter in the tournament in 2001 with England scoring 80 points in the match.
England have produced at least 36 points in each of their last three home games against the Azzurri.
We have to go straight to the handicap market for any kind of value on this match.
England are going to have to come up with an attacking response to the dirge they produced last weekend, if for no other reason to get some confidence going.
An England -36 handicap is at Even money for the fixture* (odds taken 21:34 GMT February 11th, 2021).
That would be a job well done.
Italy Preview – Can Italy stifle England?
Italy are once again the favourites to get the wooden spoon in a Six Nations season.
They have gotten off to a rough start once again having been hammered by France in their opener.
That was in Rome and Italy were totally demolished 50-10 by Les Bleus.
The last time that Italy won a Six Nations match was in the 2015 campaign.
That was a 22-19 success over Scotland.
So it has been a terrible output really since then from them in the competition and Italy are 33/1 underdogs in the match outright* (odds taken 21:34 GMT February 11th, 2021).
As a rugby betting option for the game, that doesn’t come into play at all here.
Italy have thrown in as much experience as they can for the trip to England.
Their most-capped player is Carlo Canna with 48.
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It is a little difficult to see how they improve enough from that 50-10 loss against France on the web opening weekend to get close to England.
England though are not likely to be as dynamic and cutthroat as the French are in their clinical attacking approach.
In fact, it’s unlikely that we will see much change in approach from England’s tried and tested method of trying to control things up front with power and backed up by a solid kicking game.
Still, it should be too much for Italy.
England vs Italy Betting Advice
Italy haven’t managed more than 17 points in any of their last ten trips to Twickenham (all competitions).
So they are not likely to win this. So we have to try and pick a margin.
England’s average winning margin in their last four home fixtures against Italy is roughly 41 points.
It’s tempting to think that England will win big as France destroyed Italy last weekend.
But England are not the fluid attacking unit that France are, so we are reeling in expectations.
A conservative England -33.5 handicap is at 4/6* (odds taken 21:34 GMT February 11th, 2021).
Key Facts – England vs Italy Betting Tip
- England have a perfect home record in the Six Nations against Italy
- England have averaged a 41-point winning margin in their last four home fixtures against Italy
- Italy have not won a Six Nations match since 2015
England have switched back to their best midfield at the moment of George Ford, Owen Farrell and Henry Slade.
That’s a skilful centre line and that should pay off.
We are going to look for longer odds in the England 31-40 winning margin market at 3/1* (odds taken 21:34 GMT February 11th, 2021).
The best betting odds for England vs Italy
England to win: 1/500 at Bet365
Draw: 66/1 at Bet365
Italy to win: 33/1 at Bet365
