Leeds Vs Aston Villa Betting Tip: Over 3.5 Goals – 27 February 2021

Bamford out to conquer Villa once more

Ahmed Elmohamady / Aston Villa ©IMAGO / Action Plus 04.01.2020

England Leeds United Vs Aston Villa England

Saturday 27th February 2021 – 17:30 (Sky Sports)
English Premier League
Pick: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds: 7/5
Bookmaker: Unibet
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 24th February 2021)

Preview: Momentum is building here in West Yorkshire for Leeds following back-to-back wins at Elland Road. At the same time Aston Villa appear to be regressing on their travels, with one win accrued from their past six away fixtures. So will Saturday’s contest follow the script?

English Premier League Betting at Bet365


Leeds – Bamford haul crucial to weekend success?

Marcelo Bielsa guided Leeds (W11 D2 L12) into the top half of the Premier League in midweek, eventually overpowering out-of-sorts Southampton at Elland to claim their fifth win at home of the season and their second in as many such games. Top scorer Patrick Bamford had initially opened the floodgates, scoring his 13th league goal of 2020/21, and it is interesting to not his importance to this team in West Yorkshire.

The Whites have earned five wins from their twelve top-flight home games so far since securing promotion as winners of last season’s Championship, with Bamford on target in each of these victories. The seven games at Elland Road this season in which their talismanic forward would not score, however, seen Leeds fail to win on each occasion, collecting two points from a possible 21 (D2 L5).

Keeping those supply lines through to their star striker open is crucial therefore. That is particularly pertinent this weekend when they come up against an Aston Villa team with more clean sheets in the league this term (12) than all bar Man City. Incidentally, Bamford thrived against this opponent earlier in the season, netting his maiden Premier League hat-trick in a sensational 3-0 win inside Villa Park last October.


Leeds Win & Bamford To Score

Betfair (Same Game Multi)


Aston Villa – Smith sweating on Grealish fitness?

Nobody has been involved in more league goals this season for Aston Villa (W11 D3 L9) than the 16 of Jack Grealish (6 goals, 10 assists). It was only natural, therefore, that his team-mates would suffer in his absence last time out, in what was the first game the England international failed to even make the matchday squad since November 2019. The end result a 2-1 loss at home to top-four aspirants Leicester.

The reason we mention this is because of the pessimism sounded out in his post-match interview from Villa boss Dean Smith regarding the midfielder’s imminent availability, or lack thereof. Under Smith, Villa have averaged 1.5 points-per-game with Grealish in the team compared with 0.9 without. So any early team news could be pivotal in predicting how a suddenly inconsistent outfit fare on Saturday.

Villa have now gone their past eight league games without recording the same result in successive fashion, highlighting their newfound unpredictability. They also boast only one away win in the last six (W1 D2 L3), but are unbeaten across the last two – in a narrow win at Southampton and a goalless draw with Brighton. Meanwhile, all six away victories this term came courtesy of a clean sheet.

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Leeds Vs Aston Villa Betting Advice

Patrick Bamford netted a sublime hat-trick when these sides met earlier in the season, as Leeds ran out clear and deserved 3-0 winners at Villa Park. Marcelo Bielsa’s side are favourites to get their noses in front once more and while I would hand them my own tentative vote of confidence, I do, however, fear for their lack of control on proceedings with midfield anchor Kalvin Phillips still unavailable.


Leeds Vs Aston Villa – Key Facts:

  • At Elland Road on Saturday, Leeds are looking to win a third consecutive home game while Aston Villa are seeking their second win across their last six away fixtures (W1 D2 L3).
  • No team has drawn fewer matches in the English top-flight this season than Leeds (2 – level with Sheff Utd), one fewer than Aston Villa‘s tally of three.
  • However, each of the past two meetings between these sides here at Elland Road produced stalemate (both 1-1). Villa, meanwhile, have won one of the last seven, home or away (D3 L3).


Leeds are looking to win a third consecutive home league game, against an Aston Villa team with three away defeats in their last six such fixtures. The latter are also missing their talisman, with Jack Grealish’s guile and ability to get his team up the pitch with his supreme dribbling a big loss. I still expect Villa to score – the hosts have conceded more often (43 in 25 games) than all bar West Brom. This should be end-to-end.

Best Betting Odds – Leeds Vs Aston Villa

Leeds – 13/10 (Unibet)
Draw – 5/2 (PaddyPower)
Aston Villa – 21/10 (BetVictor)