Mainz Vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Tip: Under 3.5 Goals – 16 May 2021

BVB could be made to work for three points

Adam Szalai / Mainz ©IMAGO / Rene Schulz 05/03/2021

Germany Mainz Vs Borussia Dortmund Germany

Sunday 16th May 2021 – 17:00 (BT Sport)
German Bundesliga
Pick: Under 3.5 Goals
Odds: 31/40
Bookmaker: BetVictor
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 14th May 2021)

Preview: Something may have to give inside Opel Arena on Sunday when Mainz, boasting the longest current unbeaten run in the Bundesliga, welcome a buoyant Borussia Dortmund seeking a sixth consecutive league win.

German Bundesliga Betting at Betfair


Mainz – ZeroFivers the most improved team in Germany?

Bottom of the Bundesliga in January when Bo Svensson became the club’s fourth managerial appointment of the season, Mainz (W9 D9 L14) are now a healthy five points clear of automatic relegation and are all but assured of another term at this level. However, a first win at home to Borussia Dortmund since 2014 would guarantee safety with a game to spare, while even a point would more than likely suffice.

Including his first match in charge (a 5-2 reverse at Bayern), the ZeroFivers have tasted a defeat on four occasions under the 41-year-old Dane. The last of those was way back in February, though, with the team remaining undefeated through their last nine league encounters (W5 D4) in what is the longest ongoing run of its kind in the Bundesliga. The latest, meanwhile, a hard-fought 1-1 draw away in Frankfurt.

That latter outcome will have been well received in Dortmund, whom are looking to become just the second team since January to leave Opel Arena with maximum points. It is no mean feat, either. Champions Bayern were beaten here just last month, as were second placed RB Leipzig earlier in the year, with Mainz claiming 14 of the last 21 points available to them on home soil (W4 D2 L1).


Dortmund Win & Under 2.5 Goals



Borussia Dortmund – Haaland & Co on a roll?

On Sunday, at a ground that has served them well in recent times, Borussia Dortmund (W18 D4 L10) will hope to cap a perfect week with another vital win. This after producing two sensational displays to see off RB Leipzig: first in the league, a 3-2 scoreline at Signal Iduna Park as Erling Haaland observed from the stands, before a 4-1 rout in the German Cup final, with the Norwegian and Jadon Sancho at the double.

Confidence brimming, the Black and Yellows could very well take some stopping – even against this resurgent Mainz outfit. It is something their last five opponents know all too well, with Dortmund seeking a sixth consecutive Bundesliga victory following crucial three point hauls against Stuttgart, Union Berlin, Werder Bremen, Wolfsburg and, of course, RB Leipzig. Last managing six in a row in May 2020.

The biggest area of improvement, however, has been on the road. With seven points take from their last three away outings, Eden Terzic’s side have amassed one more point than they had done in their previous seven away Bundesliga games. In fact, they have won three of the last five said matches (D1 L1) – make that four in six and their stranglehold of fourth spot (one points ahead of Frankfurt) will only tighten.

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Mainz Vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Advice

History tells us that opposing Borussia Dortmund in this fixture is most unwise. In the previous ten Bundesliga meetings to have been held here, in Mainz, the hosts emerged with the win only once – a 2-0 scoreline in September 2014 – with the visitors victorious in four of five subsequent meetings at Opel Arena. None of these, meanwhile, were as emphatic as the 4-0 scoreline they racked up here last season.


Mainz Vs Borussia Dortmund – Key Facts:

  • This fixture has served one of these sides especially well in recent seasons, with Dortmund seeking a fourth consecutive away win against Mainz in the Bundesliga.
  • Five of the last six Bundesliga meetings here produced Under 2.5 Goals. That bet delivered in seven of the last ten league games involving Mainz, who are unbeaten in nine (W5 D4).
  • Dortmund are in confident scoring form though. Edin Terzic’s side have scored two or more in 10 of their last 11 Bundesliga matches, winning the last five in a row.


Mainz deserve our respect, though. Both Bayern and RB Leipzig have come unstuck here in 2021, while the ZeroFivers have a nine-game unbeaten run to protect. Nevertheless, there is a wealth of momentum behind this Dortmund team. Any victory for the guests will need to be hard-earned, though, with Mainz having restricted 10 of their last 11 opponents to no more than a single goal. Seven of these produced Under 2.5 Goals.

Best Betting Odds – Mainz Vs Borussia Dortmund

Mainz – 11/2 (Betfair)
Draw – 4/1 (BetVictor)
Borussia Dortmund – 4/9 (Betway)