Newcastle Falcons vs Exeter Chiefs
7th February 1300hrs
Rugby – England – Premiership
Pick Exeter -7 handicap
Bookmaker coral
Odds: Even Money odds taken 13:13 GMT, Thursday, 4th February
This is a big one at Kingston Park on Sunday in the Premiership. Newcastle are looking to stop a slide, having lost two of their last three.
Exeter managed to break their own little slump with a narrow victory at Worcester last weekend.
Will the reigning champions wrap up all four points in the northeast to start building some better momentum?
Table of Contents
Newcastle Falcons Preview – Can the Falcons stop the slide
After such a powerful start to the new season back in the top, Newcastle are facing questions for the first time.
They have lost two of their last three league fixtures now.
Those were reverses against Bristol and London Irish, but they were both road fixtures.
In the match outright for this home game, Newcastle Falcons are at 11/5* (odds taken 13:13 GMT, Thursday, 4th February).
So a tricky task does await them. They are, after all, taking on the reigning Premiership champions.
The head to head record that Newcastle Falcons hold against the Chiefs isn’t great.
The Falcons have won just two of their previous seventeen Premiership fixtures against them.
But as a positive from that head to head, both wins did happen at Kingston Park in 2014 and 2018.
But can they do it again?
From their six completed fixtures this season in the Premiership, Newcastle are W4 L2.
Looking at the matches which they have played at home, the Falcons have beaten Gloucester and Sale.
Those were by margins of 2 points and 12 points respectively.
The Falcons are not a high-scoring side and so they are going to be relying heavily on their defence again.
A Newcastle +8 in the handicap is at 10/11* (odds taken 13:13 GMT, Thursday, 4th February).
That is surely taking into consideration Exeter having gone off the boil a little bit with their form.
Exeter Chiefs Preview – Can Exeter get back in the groove?
After back to back league losses against Wasps and Bristol, Exeter stopped the losing last weekend.
They went to Worcester and had to really grind out a narrow 21-17 win.
The scoring form of Exeter has really dived such a strong start to the new campaign.
In their last three league games, they are averaging around 10 points per fixture only.
But maybe it was all a little blip that even great teams go through.
In the match outright for rugby betting, Exeter are strong 1/3 odds-on favourites* (odds taken 13:13 GMT, Thursday, 4th February).
In their last four away games in the Premiership, the only loss that the Chiefs have suffered was at Wasps in Round 5.
On the road this season, Exeter have beaten Leicester, Harlequins and Worcester now.
The one upset was that game at Wasps which Exeter lost 34-5.
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Exeter Chiefs are the favourites here, so we want to look at some margins for betting prospects.
In the three wins that they have secured on the road this season, two of them were by a margin of at least 20 points.
There is a current quote of even money on a Chiefs -7 handicap which looks worth playing at* (odds taken 13:13 GMT, Thursday, 4th February).
Part of the reason for that is Newcastle have now given up 29 points or more in three of their last five fixtures in all competitions.
There may be cracks there for Exeter to exploit.
Newcastle Falcons vs Exeter Chiefs Betting Advice
We would have to side with Exeter coming away with the victory at Kingston Park.
There have been just a couple of cracks appearing for Newcastle after their big surge of early form.
Exeter, although narrowly, did get back on track last weekend and should push on.
An Exeter -7 handicap looks an excellent proposition at evens* (odds taken 13:13 GMT, Thursday, 4th February).
Key Facts – Newcastle Falcons vs Exeter Chiefs Betting Tip
- Newcastle Falcons have lost 2 of their last 3 league games
- Newcastle Falcons have won 2 of 17 previous contest in the Premiership against Exeter
- Exeter Chiefs have lost one of their last four league away games
In the betting markets we are going to consider a long shot of an Exeter 1-12 winning margin at 2/1* (odds taken 13:13 GMT, Thursday, 4th February).
That looks reasonable if the Chiefs can play anything like their best.
Newcastle have done superbly at home in the league this season, but with a poor head to head against the Chiefs, we can’t support them.
The best betting odds for Newcastle Falcons vs Exeter Chiefs
Newcastle Falcons to win: 12/1 at Bet365
Draw: 13/5 at Bet365
Exeter Chiefs to win: 10/11 at Bet365
