Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem Betting Tip Nadal 3-1 – 29th January 2020

Nadal can counter-punch his way past Thiem

Dominic Thiem / Austrian ©imago images / PanoramiC 28.01.2020

SpainRafael Nadal vs Dominic ThiemAustria
29th January 00:00hrs
Tennis – Australian Open – Quarter Finals
Pick Nadal 3-1
Bookmaker Unibet
Odds: 14/5 odds taken 23:17 GMT, Monday 27th January

Austria’s Dominic Thiem will have been delighted with having raced through his fourth round fixture at the Australian Open against Gael Monfils. It was a quick, efficient job well done.

Now he has to go and try and handle Rafael Nadal for a place in the semi finals. Nadal came through a high-intensity clash against Nick Kyrgios in the last round, having been taken to four sets by the Australian.

Bet at Unibet


Nadal still the favourite despite Thiem’s improving form

Rafael Nadal had raced through the first three rounds of action at the Australian Open. There really wasn’t a contest put in front of him. That changed in the fourth round when he went up against Nick Kyrgios. The Australian was surprisingly flat in the opening round of the contest which Nadal took 6-3.

But then Kyrgios found his footing to level things up. But Nadal counter-punched his way to success taking the next two sets on tie-breaks. That was the biggest test yet then for Nadal and he came through it. Nadal would have always known that he was going to have a tough duel in that one.

Our betting prediction:
Total Games Over 41.5

Bet at Paddy Power

(odds taken 23:17 GMT, Monday 27th January)

There’s is a decent amount of history between the two players to dig into. Nadal leads the head to head 9-4 over Thiem. They met twice last year with Thiem collecting a straight-sets win in Barcelona surprisingly on the clay, before Nadal redressed the balance with a win at the French Open.

This will be their first Australian Open meeting. They did meet on the hard courts at the US Open in 2018 however and that one went to five sets after Nadal had dropped the opener. The Spaniard took the match. Nadal has prevailed in all five previous Slam meetings.


Can Thiem take his chance?

Sizing things up, there has been some improvement form from Thiem at this year’s Australian Open. He needed five sets to recover from being 2-1 down in the second round against Alex Bolt before being taken to a four-set game in the following round against Taylor Fritz. In what was ideal preparation for this fixture against Nadal, Thiem powered his way to a straight-sets win over Gael Monfils in the last round.

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The last thing he would have wanted was a long match before having to take on Nadal and the brilliant defence of the Spaniard. So can his improving sharpness take Thiem to the semi finals?

Given that he had never been past the fourth round oat Melbourne Park in six previous attempts, this has been a superb response by him. Still, at the end of the day his breakthrough Slam title, if it comes, is more likely to be in France.


Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem Betting Advice

The record of Thiem on the hard court surface in Slams is pretty poor. Nadal has to be backed to come through this contest, but given the way that Thiem is improving and looking more confident, it may be worth backing the Austrian to get a set won.


Key Facts – Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem Betting Tip

  • Rafael Nadal leads the head to head 9-4
  • Rafael Nadal has won all five previous Slam meetings
  • Dominic Thiem had never been beyond the 4th Round at the Australian Open before this


Over the best of five, Thiem is not likely to have the answers to break down Nadal. Will that four-set battle against Kyrgios have hindered Nadal in any way? Not really, if nothing it will have sharpened him up as it was his first big challenge of the tournament so far.


The best betting odds for Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem

Rafael Nadal to win: 3/1 at Bet365
Dominic Thiem: 5/2 at Bet365