Wolfsburg vs Freiburg
Wolfsburg vs FreiburgSunday 31st January 2021 – 17:00 (BT Sport)
German Bundesliga
Pick: Wolfsburg to WIN
Odds: 17/20
Bookmaker: Betfair
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 28th January 2021)
Preview: It was honours even when these sides clashed on Matchday 2, a 1-1 scoreline ensuring the third stalemate across the past four Bundesliga meetings. Can Wolfsburg, boasting five more points than Freiburg, make home advantage tell this time around inside Volskwagen Arena?
German Bundesliga Betting at Bet365
Table of Contents
Wolfsburg – Wolves to maintain top-four charge?
Only once before, in 2014/15 when going on to finish the campaign as runners-up behind Bayern Munich, have Wolfsburg (W8 D8 L2) had more points after 18 rounds than their current tally of 32. That being good enough for fourth place ahead of this weekend’s action, putting them level with Bayer Leverkusen, who take on second-in-the-table RB Leipzig on Saturday, and a point clear of Gladbach in fifth.
So the groundwork for a highly successful season has been laid by Oliver Glasner and his team. The challenge now, as ever, is ensuring the standards set throughout the first half of the campaign are maintained right through to the end of May, when football in Germany is schedule to reach its conclusion. Ahead of Matchday 19, though, The Wolves had lost a league-low two league games in 2020/21.
Neither of those defeats occurred at their Volkswagen Arena, where they have picked up 18 of a possible 24 points so far (W5 D3). Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig, the Bundesliga’s top-two at present, the only sides averaging more points per home game than Wolfsburg, who stretched their unbeaten run in the league to four matches (W2 D2) last time out with a 1-0 win at Leverkusen.
Freiburg – More away spoils at Volkswagen Arena?
Sunday sees this in-form Freiburg (W7 D6 L5) outfit looking to preserve a fine record that has seen them lose once in ten Bundesliga outings. That a 2-1 scoreline against reigning champions Bayern Munich, at the Allianz Arena no less, earlier in the month. Whereas the outcome in Bavaria might have derailed them, having previously reeled off five consecutive victories, it would appear to have had a rallying affect instead.
In both subsequent matches since the Bayern reverse, Freiburg have fallen behind inside the opening ten minutes before rallying to score twice at home to Frankfurt and Stuttgart. And while they held one to their advantage to etch out a slender win versus the latter, an own goal prevented them from doing so against the former. However, both were fortunate outcomes according to Infogol’s Expected Goals model.
A regression to the mean could be imminent then, although Sunday may come too soon bearing in mind how strong their record in this fixture is. Since 2012, Freiburg have earned more points (11) away to Wolfsburg than against any other Bundesliga side. They are also unbeaten across the past five head-to-heads (W2 D3), netting two or more on each of their last two visits (W1 D1) to the Volkswagen Arena.
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Wolfsburg Vs Freiburg Betting Advice
Five of the past seven Bundesliga meetings between these clubs have seen both teams score. This includes their meeting inside Schwarzwald-Stadion in late September, when Wolfsburg struck late in the first half to cancel out an early opener for the home side. Now, Freiburg are tasked with travelling, and their record away to the top sides isn’t the best this season, losing at Bayern (2-1), Dortmund (4-0) and RB Leipzig (3-0).
Wolfsburg Vs Freiburg – Key Facts:
- Among three teams to have lost only two of 18 Bundesliga games in 2020/21, Wolfsburg are yet to lose a home game (W5 D3), winning five of the last six such fixtures.
- One defeat in ten Bundesliga matches now for Freiburg, who have scored at least once in each of their last eleven league games.
- Freiburg remain unbeaten across their past five Bundesliga meetings with Wolfsburg, while five of the last seven encounters between featured both teams scoring.
Wolfsburg boast the third-best points per game average when playing at home this term, while 8 conceded in as many games is a figure bettered only by RB Leipzig. So a breakthrough could prove tricky for the visitors. Freiburg, who are clearly tough to beat, have found goals harder to come by on their travels though, netting at a rate of 1.38 per away game – down from 2.2 when at home. I’ll back the hosts.
Best Betting Odds – Wolfsburg Vs Freiburg
Wolfsburg – 17/20 (Betfair)
Draw – 14/5 (BetVictor)
Freiburg – 33/10 (Unibet)
