Bet On Draw at Football + Horse Racing Betting System

Draws, do you need them? and other thoughts

How to win Football Betting

As the title asks, do you really need to try to forecast draws.?
A draw is the hardest forecast to make with any certainty.
Give it some thought. Many years ago everybody, well almost everybody, filled in a pools coupon. Just find EIGHT DRAWS, for the JACKPOT.
There were anything up to 56 matches to choose from. Must be easy to find JUST EIGHT. Of course it wasn’t easy and many weeks not even ONE person found the magical number required. Even with so many matches to choose from.

Even trying to find just three draws was hard enough, from the same 56 matches. Is it any wonder that almost everybody used a permutation?
It simply wasn’t the done thing to try to find eight draws from just eight selections.
Even now with the computers we have at our beck and call, we’ve almost no chance of hitting the jackpot. Simply because a DRAW is the hardest result to forecast.
With the draw forecast you have no room for manoeuvre. You must be spot on.
Think of all the obstacles you may have to overcome. A single, unusual slip by a defender. A penalty that "never was". There’s a thousand and one banana skins just waiting for you.
Compare this with a HOME win forecast. 1 – 0, 2 – 0. It doesn’t matter. It will still be a correct forecast irrespective of the scoreline. HOMES and even AWAYS are a much better bet when it comes to forecasting results.
Just give it some thought.

Food for thought.

I’ve recently been looking at the percentages of winners at each STARTING PRICE.
I checked through both HANDICAP and NON-HANDICAP races at both FLAT and NATIONAL HUNT returns.
The information I garnered was quite interesting.
I looked at a small group of prices and was surprised to see very little variation over both codes. The same variation applied to both HANDICAP and NON-HANCICAP races.
The conclusion I came to was that the thoughts that I’s had for many years regarding the types of races were not really valid.
As expected ODDS-ON shots did the best of all. Why expect anything different? However to group comprising 2/1 to 100/30 showed a level of consistency  of success that surprised me. Just give the figures below a few minutes if your time.

Starting Price.  Flat Non-Handicaps.  Flat HC.  N.H. Non-HC.  N.H. HC.

 2/1 ( % of winners).   31              30          31           29
 9/4                    27              28          29           26
 5/2                    27              26          28           24
11/4                    25              25          25           23
 3/1                    24              22          24           22
10/3                    20              20          21           20

These figures don’t tell us very much except that the shorter the SP more winners can be expected. Something of which most of us will already be aware.
However, 2/1 shots average 3 winners from every 10 runners. Or looking at it from a different angle, 7 losers from 10 runners.
As we go lower down the table 10/3 shots average 2 winners out of every 10 runners. Or 8 losers from 10 runners.
Looking at these figures there would seem to be a case for thinking about LAYING some of these runners at these prices.
Even betting against the 2/1 shots should provide a good supply of winning bets. A ratio of just better than 2:1. Move down to the largest price , 10/3 and the ratio jumps to 4:1.
Naturally there are some bugbears attached to backing any of these suggestions.
Firstly it means having up-to-date prices as near to the off as possible. The obvious alternative is to use a GOOD betting forecast.
The Racing Post springs to mind but some of the tabloids use prices which are identical to the Post. The Daily Mirror springs to mind.
The second bugbear would be the occasions when there was more than one such priced horse in the same race. Me, I’d move on to the next race. Thirdly, the inevitable losing run.
Some basic rules would be necessary, of course. Very basic, so that those of you who are so minded can add your own filters and hopefully engender a better winning percentage. 

Choose the larger fields. Choose races where the betting includes only ONE of the prices listed. As any runner quoted at one of the above prices will almost certainly be in the first three in the betting, it would be natural to keep to courses which have a good record for 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites.
More than one qualifier in a race, NO BET.
If the selection goes out beyond 10/3,  NO BET.

My own suggestion would be to choose one meeting per day.
These figures come from stats over a long period of time and usually prove very reliable.

I think this strategy has a lot of potential. I don’t have too much spare time but I will endeavour to trial the selections using the Daily Mirror for betting forecast purposes. I really do feel that this could be a sound selection method for LAY BETS.

The Merciless Barrage.
July has proved a let-down after two good months. However there is still almost two weeks to turn things round.
10 races but only 4 winners and 1 non-runner, and SP’s nothing to write home about.
Current loss for this month is 119.5 pts.
On the other hand the Supplementary bets had 5 winners from 7 races.
Supplementary bets are those which don’t qualify as the MAIN BET for the day.

Don’t forget. Bet responsibly.


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