Betting strategies (part 3)
Firstly let me explain how I view strategies I pass on to you.
Each one is what I call a "skeleton". It’s then up to each person who uses it, to add his own refinements. (Put some meat on the bones so to speak). I firmly believe that the more effort a person puts into his betting selections, the greater the satisfaction there is when pocketing those winnings.
The main thing to realise when betting on football is that you’re betting on GOALS. Or lack of them. Consequently it’s a MUST to know which teams are in scoring form. Allied to goalscoring is TIME. A good knowledge of these two is a must when you are setting out your stall for footballing strategies. Many strategies are based on both these fundamentals.
Only a few teams are able to score early in a match and then sit back and soak pressure for as long as needed.
IN-PLAY BETTING.
When a goal is scored there is usually quite a marked change in all the prices in all of the markets available to the in-play punter.
The changes are as you would expect. The scoring team’s price will shorten whilst the prices on the other two outcomes will lengthen. It’s not rocket science but you do need to be quick to take advantage of the changes.
One occasion when the price movement might not be so marked, is when the unfancied side score first. (A real bummer for the Lay the Draw punter).
TRY THIS.
A strategy that I’ve been looking at with great interest is Backing UNDER 2.5 goals before the K.O. Then BACKING Three goals or more as the game progresses.
Staking is based on the price of the UNDERS bet. Assume that you’re happy to make 10% on the bet overall. (I know 10% doesn’t sound much but that is a very acceptable figure to the small percentage of backers who make a profit, year on year).
To find your approximate stake. Divide your stake plus your expected win, (100 + 10), by the odds offered on the UNDERS market. Stake plus expected profit 110 divided by Unders price, say 1.9 = 57.89. Round up to 58. That leaves a stake for the second part of the bet, of 42. Now to find an acceptable point to back the Three goals or more part of the bet. This time divide your stake plus profit by your remaining stake. e.g. 110 divided by 42, = 2.619. Rounded to 2.62. This is the lowest odds at which you will back THREE GOALS OR MORE.
You need to be very selective with your chosen games. Ideally you want teams that take time to get into their stride.
As I’ve mentioned earlier this is basic, it really does need your individual input.
LEAGUE RESULTS (Up to and including Saturday 22nd August).
I know it’s really early in the season but results so far are yelling out loud, "BEWARE".
The results in the five English leagues have been anything but "normal". Just check the 1 – 2 – X for each division so far.
1 2 X (percentages).
Premiership 50 45 5 Sparcity of draws, too many aways.
Championship 34 26 40 A little overweight on the draws.
League 1 35 33 31 Pretty near to the theoretical spread.
League 2 49 34 17 Low on draws.
Conference. 44 24 32 A slight imbalance between aways and draws.
——————–
Average of 5 42.4 32.4 25.
Leagues.
The Average of the Five divisions is not far from what can be expected but the individual divisions are well out of kilter. Make no mistake, they will come into line, sooner rather than later.
Having digested the above figures I would recommend giving them all a miss until some form of normality returns.
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