WHAT DO YOU KNOW? (About Football Betting) – part 4.
Knowing your markets will always be a big help , especially when you find yourself running out of just prior to Kick-Off time.
Who amongst us hasn’t missed a bet by the skin of our teeth? Almost always a winning bet too.
Sod’s Law.
Your average match on Betfair has 50 different markets. How many does the average punter need?
As an ex-betting shop manager, I can see why there are so many markets. But really, some of them are only space fillers, unless you have money to burn.
Almost every market on Betfair will have a "twin" on at least one bookmakers site. The odds will nearly always be different but it is in your own interest to be able to make comparisons.
This is where the COMPARISON sites become very useful. There a quite a number on the internet but what suits one guy will suit everybody.
Check out a few of the sites and see which one is your "cup of tea". They’re worth their weight in gold to the seasoned punter.
Many markets where you can find VALUE are to be found in the lesser leagues.
When you consider how many leagues and matches each bookmaker will cover, it’s easy to see that the ODDS MAKERS have their hands full.
Consequently some leagues appear not to receive the attention of their more illustrious brothers. This is where you can often find yourself getting as much as a point "over-the odds". It all takes time. Then again, if you want things, you must earn them.
Try and put some time to one side on the same day/night each week. use this to set out your stall for the following week-ends matches.
You must speculate to accumulate, so spend some of the time, you might sit in the pub, at home with your form books or whatever you use for studying, lock yourself away from distractions and find those VALUE BETS. They’re all out there just waiting for you to
pick them up.
Which games routinely let you down? What do you mean, you don’t know? You must keep detailed records of ALL your bets. Not just the teams and the odds available. Keep comprehensive records. Even note the day of the week when the game is being played. Some people can’t back a book let alone a winner during the week when they have work to worry about.
Day/date Home v Visitor. Odds for each eventuality. Your prediction. Bookmaker. Odds taken. Bank. Stake. RESULT Profit/Loss. New Bank.
looks a bit contrived but you need to keep as much info as you can. You can probably think of some other detail(s) you might find useful.
The more you keep on record the more you are fore=armed.
Much has been written, and will continue to so, about STAKING.
This is a discussion that can go on for ever.
You MUST have some kind of STAKING PLAN. Whether you realise it or not, that is a fact. The fact that you are having a bet requires a stake.
Therefore you must put some thought into the matter of how much to wager. Your next bet might be a totally different stake. In effect you’ve had two bets and used two different stakes which in effect means you’ve used TWO different staking plans. What really matters is how you decide what to wager on each bet. And why.
In my opinion winner finding comes first, followed by correct staking. You can’t separate these two things. What is difficult to resolve is, DO YOU STAKE CORRECTLY. To take proper advantage of your winners you need to stake them properly. It’s no use having a £1 on an odds on shot which wins and then £5 on a 5/2 shot that loses.
I know this is all elementary to many of you but there will be someone who is still dipping his toe into the water.
Now if you have a method that turns out winners that make a LEVEL-STAKE PROFIT, you have it made. Unfortunately very few of us do.
My answer to this problem is to tailor the stake to the realistic chance of the bet winning. This way an oods-on shot would carry a larger stake than a 6/4 shot. And so forth.
Obviously there must be a sound basis on which to choose these bets.
Basically, it is necessary to find the chance that each price has of winning. This means lots of burning the midnight oil.
Even then, it’s not guaranteed to find more winners. However I do believe that it will go a long way towards rooting out losers.
‘Til next time,
Bet Sensibly.
