WHAT DO YOU KNOW (About Football Betting) – part 6.
Odds-on favourites playing at home
Last time I had a brief look at the ODDS-ON favourites, playing at HOME, that were losing money.
At present the PREMIERSHIP is pretty well in line with most major leagues throughout the footballing world.
We have to look to odds of 4.51 to 6.00 before we find an UNDER PERFORMING group in the overall table.
This table shows the break-down of odds and the probability of their winning probability range.
ODDS ODDS
RANGE PROBABILITY
1.01 TO 1.25 72% TO 100%
1.26 1.50 60.0 71.9
1.51 1.75 51.4 59.9
1.76 2.00 45.0 51.3
2.01 2.25 40.0 44.9
2.26 2.50 36.0 39.9
2.51 2.75 32.7 35.9
2.76 3.00 30.0 32.6
3.01 3.25 27.7 29.9
3.26 3.50 25.7 27.6
3.51 3.75 24.0 25.6
3.76 4.00 22.5 23.9
4.01 4.50 20.0 22.4
4.51 5.00 18.0 19.9
5.01 6.00 15.0 17.9
6.01 7.00 12.8 14.9
7.01 10.00 09.0 12.7
OVER 10.0 00.0 08.9
A league by league break-down will give some idea of where to find the likeliest GOOD THINGS.
Premiership.
1.26 to 1.50 is currently in the Red. only 5 winners out of 12 giving only 41.67% against a possible 60 to 71.9% in probability.
2.01 to 2,25 and 2.26 to 2.50 are well above "probability". As id 2.76 to 3.00 on 57.14%
Spain.
La Liga has only TWO odds sets that are under performing at HOME.
1.01 TO 1.25 @ 70% and 2.76 to 3.00 @ 14.29%
1.51 to 2.50 are OVER achieving @ 64%.
Serie A.
2.51 to 3.00 are UNDER-PERFORMING @ 22.0%
1.51 to 2.00 are ahead of expectations @ 64.7%.
Bundesliga 1.
Here 1.76 to2.00 is doing very badly returning only 36.36% success. Then from 2.01 to 3.25 they are achieving more than expected 47.3%.
France Div 1.
Doing as badly as the Premiership. 1.76 to 2.25 is abysmal at 33.74then 2.51 to 3.00 @ 19.88.
They do a little better than expected at 1.51 to 1.75 and also at 2.25 to 2.50. Nothing to write home about though.
Portugal Supaliga.
As can be expected from such an uncompetitive league most break-down figures look impresssive.
1.01 to 1.25 holds sway at 90%. Just one loser in ten.
Then from 1.51 to 2.75 the overall figures show an OVER-PERFORMING outcome averaging at 56.53%. The expected average within this range is 46.38%.
The only blot is 1.25 to 1.50. Only 2 winners from 5 for 40% return.
Dutch Eredivision.
Here odds-on shots do very well. In fact the LOWEST UNDER=PERFORMING PRICE IS 2.01.
1.01 to 1.25 show 13 winners from 15. 86 66%.
1.26 to 2.00 are all performing better than expected. Averaging @ 73.46%.
Irish Premier.
The first three odds sets, 1.01 to 1.25, 1.26 to 1.50 ans 1.51 to 1.75 were by far the
outstanding performers in the season just finished. 100%, 80.0% and 61.9% respectively.
After these it was downhill all the way. the next four odds sets managing just 15 wins out of 45 matches.
There were the usual big priced winners including 5 out of 18 at odds greater than 4.01. In all just another set of mainly unreliable results.
Braziliero.
Anotherleague that is now in it’s off-season.
Here there was quite a mixure of results. 1.01 was quite a disaster with only 9 winners from 21 matches. A quick route to the workhouse. 1.26 to 1.50 was comfortably within range 21 winners from 31 matches giving a return on 67.74% on these games.
1.51 to 1.75 were better than the expected outcome at 63.77% Other outstanding figures were put up by 2.26 to 2.50 returning 40.48%, 2.76 to 3.00 showing 33.33% and finally 3.01 to 3.25 returning a fine 57.14%.
MLS (USA).
Another league whose programme had ended for this year.
Many people say the Yanks do everything better. Well they do in this case. Nothing mundane here. There odds-sets are either under performing or over performing.
It’s the very short odds-on that really have suffered . 1.01 to 1.50 has 7 winners from 14 matches.
Which averages out at 50%. Estimated odds probability would be nearer 80%.
The next three odds slots returned an overall 58% win average.
Long priced winners just didn’t materialise . None above 3.25.
Playing around with percentages and decimal points isn’t everybodies idea of having fun. however if you intend making money from your bets you have to treat it like that four letter word, WORK.
Don’t forget. Bet sensibly.
