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Betting on Scored Goals (over)

Sports Betting Strategy of Lawrence

Betting on Scored Goals (over) - Sports Betting Strategy of Lawrence - © Smileus - Fotolia.com

My strategy is based on goals scored by teams. I play mostly soccer and sometimes basketball. I realised after much time of losing money that is very hard to choose winners. Instead, goals ( in soccer ) always come very often, for your favourite team or against your favourite team. Is just a fact.

I played for more than 5 years on 1 ,X ,2 market, handicap market but I realised, mostly on handicap market that lines are very sharp. I was constantly losing. Not very fast but losing on long term. I was very tempted to take asian handicap bets because odds were very good: 1.85 , 1.95. I thought I needed only little over 50 % winning bets to win on long term. Well, it was very hard. I was trying to find all kind of information about a soccer game: injuries and suspensions, watch soccer game to determine if a team is better or worse than current standings show .

Nothing really works. I spend much time that didn’t helped me to choose my bet correctly .

Now, my strategy. As I said, I noticed many goals are scored in soccer games, even underdog teams score very often. I prefer to bet on goals because humans commit mistakes many times and goals come right away after defensive mistakes. Goals are scored even in 90th minute and you could win in last minute with a bit of luck. I need at least 2 goals scored to win.

Simple as that. I now play over 1.5 goals at low odds, but at least I am winning most of the time.

For this strategy to work, I have a range of odds that are accepted: 1.2 ~ 1.35. Odds lower than 1.20 are excluded automatically as they would return only a small payout. I noticed as odds get bigger, for example over 1.35, chances of winning drop very much because there are informations that I miss for sure.

Of course I want as big odds as possible but for my strategy 1.35 is maximal odd.

Money management: flat stake , every bet is 5 % of my bank.

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Now selection of the games:

A. First I choose leagues where there are many goals scored, for example Netherland, division 1,2 Austria 2nd league, or Japan League.

Mainly I choose leagues where odds for over 2.5 goals scored are good enough and still there are scored more than 50 % of the games at least 3 goals. This thing tells me that this championship is open .

B. In every league there are defensive teams and offensive teams. I watch through statistics and find teams that have at least 80 % of the games ending with at least 2 goals scored. Is preferable that both teams have at least 80 % of the games ending with at least 2 goals scored. Usually I choose middle table teams that have little to play for. I don’t like to bet on derbyes.

C. I try to find informations about teams but for me this isn’t too important because I watch on tv or on internet most of the games I play. During a good day I choose 4-5 games to bet on this strategy. D. Once I get my list of bets for today, I don’t rush to place my bets. I use a bookmaker that has many games available for live betting. I search if a game of mine is available for live betting. If it is I prefer to wait 10 minutes after game starts then I place my bet. I noticed that with this little trick I get better odds. If odds were let’s say 1.2 before game started, after 10 minutes of play I get few points more.
Every point is important .

With this strategy I have around 85% success rate. I prefer smaller but steady profit.