2018 World Cup Preview
With the domestic competition come to an end in the UK and ahead of this weekend’s Champions League final I thought it would be a good time to begin the preview of this summer’s World Cup which is now less than a month away. Squads for the 32 nations who will descend on Russia are being firmed up and excitement is certainly building. It’s been four long years since Germany lifted the famous trophy in Rio and they will again be amongst the favourites to end the competition as champions but there are no shortage of pretenders looking to take their crown. This series of previews will hopefully identify not only the winners but a number of good value bets for interests throughout the month-long tournament.
Table of Contents
Pre-Tournament Favourites
Brazil were arguably the most impressive of all the teams in their respective qualification campaigns as they strolled to first place in South America. They lost only one of their 18 games and scored a very impressive 41 goals in the process. It certainly appears they have managed to banish the nightmare ending to the last World Cup, when they hosted and were destroyed 7-1 in the semi final to Germany, but I suppose that will only be confirmed as and when they reach a similar stage and cope with those demands. Tite has been in charge for just under two years and although he had to endure a pretty dismal Copa America campaign in 2016, he certainly seems to have got them on the path to glory once again. Drawn in the same group as Serbia, Switzerland and Costa Rica, the Brazilians will be massive favourites to top the group. Star man Neymar has not played since the end of February but everything has been geared around his return in time for the World Cup as he bids to be the catalyst in his nation’s attempt to win their first World Cup since 2002. With so much unpredictability about a tournament that lasts a month and the winners play just seven games, they appear to be a very worthy favourite.
Second favourites are the current World Cup holders but they would have been slightly disappointed with what has occurred in the four years since. A semi final defeat to France ended their hopes in the 2016 European Championships – reaching that stage is a success for most nations but Germany’s thirst for success and the expectation that surrounds them is such that it’s the least they should be achieving. An experimental squad won the Confederations Cup last summer and they hope they’ll be able to repeat the success when they return to Russia next month. They finished World Cup qualification with a 100% record, albeit in a group which posed little threat. It was absolute domination, however, and also allowed coach Joachim Low to field some younger players, resting a few more seasoned members of the squad to give them extra rest which he hopes will benefit their hopes by being fresher for the World Cup itself. Mexico, Sweden and South Korea await them in Group F. All three are seasoned tournament teams but German’s strength and quality is such that they should not be overly troubled.
Spain made history when winning three consecutive major international tournaments between 2008 and 2012 and went into the last World Cup well fancied to win the whole thing once again. It turned into a disaster for Vincent Del Bosque and his squad, however, as they exited at the group stage following defeats to the Dutch and Chile before a dead-rubber win over Australia. Another disappointment campaign followed in France when losing to Italy at the first knockout stage and that defeated signalled change with Julen Lopetegui replacing Del Bosque. Well known having achieved success at youth levels with Spain, he has refreshed the squad by introducing young players and it paid dividends with a very strong showing in qualification. That form has continued into recent friendly games, not least the 6-1 thumping of Argentina in March. The quality of player left at home is indicative of the strength in depth that Spain have just now and with plenty of representation in the two Madrid teams who have reached European finals this season, a new golden age could well be dawning for Spain. Portugal will be their big rivals for top spot in Group B which also hosts Iran and Morocco.
The French, like Spain, have named their final 23-man squad for the summer’s World Cup and they have left some big names at home. Anthony Martial, Adrien Rabiot, Alexandre Lacazette and Karim Benzema will all be watching from home as France hope to win their first World Cup in 20 years. Didier Deschamps will be one of the longest serving managers competing in Russia and it’s been a mixed tenure so far. This will be his third tournament with a quarter final in the 2014 World Cup followed up by an agonising loss to Portugal in their own European Championships. Many expected him to be replaced at that point but he has survived and topped their qualification group without being at their best. Doubts remain about Deschamps ability to get the best from a hugely talented pool of players but he was captain of the French team that won in 1998 so knows what it takes. On paper it would appear that they will have little trouble from group opponents Australia, Peru and Denmark. On the other hand, the French do not always do well when expectation is so high and it may be they’re at their best when holding the tag as underdogs.
It’s fair to say that Argentina probably would be double the price they currently are to win this summer’s World cup if it wasn’t for Lionel Messi – still the best player on the planet. It was Messi’s hat-trick in the final group game away to Ecuador which ensured they qualified automatically for the finals and never had to endure a playoff. Jorge Sampaoli took charge towards the end of that campaign and following a very successful spell as Chile manager where he won two Copa Americas, expectation was high he could enjoy similar success with what is – one paper at least – a stronger group of players. In the limited evidence we have to go on it may well be more difficult to find a winning formula with Argentina. Despite qualification there are plenty of doubts as to the merits of Argentina being winners. That 6-1 humbling at the hands of Spain once again exposed their defensive fragilities as well as their overreliance on Messi, who watched from the stands. The little magician has earned some rest towards the end of Barcelona’s league campaign in the hope he can lead them to glory but the hard truth is they may well have missed their chance in the last World Cup, when losing to Germany in the final. Their chances are also not helped by being drawn in a group alongside Croatia, Iceland and Nigeria. It’s arguably the hardest of all the sections and Argentina will have to improve if they are to negotiate it.
Other Hopefuls
It’s been Belgium’s golden age for the last few years but each time they are expected to make an impact at a major international tournament they continue to disappoint. Roberto Martinez took over following an extremely frustrating exit to Wales at Euro 2016 and he has done what Belgium teams have done of late – qualify with very little worry. Undefeated in qualification winning nine from their ten games, Belgium now have to translate that form into the finals. There is quality throughout the squad but still remains uncertainty as to how all the parts should be fitted together. Much of their hopes will be paced on Eden Hazard and Kevin de Bruyne. The latter was exceptional in Manchester City’s Premier League procession and Hazard – whilst not have the same consistent impact for Chelsea – is often seen as a big game player. Panama, Tunisia and England await them and many predict it will be the game against Gareth Southgate’s men will determine who finishes top – which would determine their path in the knockout stage.
Moving on to England and this is probably the first tournament for a while they come in with minimal expectations. Southgate only assumed charge of the national team because of Sam Allardyce’s resignation but he has used qualification to nurture some young players who will be making their big tournament debut so that has tempered the unrealistic expectations which have put them under pressure from the outset in previous competitions. It does look a straight battle with Belgium for top spot in Group G but Martinez’ men are certainly favourites to achieve that goal. You get the feeling that Southgate is building towards the European Championships in 2020 and the next World Cup but it may be that the reduced pressure on England is a good thing and they can spring a surprise or two, although they remain some way behind the top European teams and Brazil.
Portugal produced a surprise of their own two years ago by winning the European Championships. Cristiano Ronaldo aside, it appeared to be a squad which would lack the required collective ability to win a major tournament and when the Real Madrid talisman went off in the final injured it appeared any chance they had of beating France was gone. Eder proved to be the extremely unlikely hero in extra time though, illustrating just how unpredictable these tournaments can be at times. They’ll be up against it to finish above Spain their group but have been written off on plenty of occasions it should not be a problem for Fernando Santos who will be hoping his squad can continue their strong showing in qualification. Much will again rest on the shoulders of Ronaldo who has the little matter of another Champions League final before joining up with Portugal.
Uruguay, Croatia and Colombia are all around a similar price and would equally be surprising winners but a strong showing can be expected. Uruguay continue to punch above their weight and will have one of the best striking partnerships in the tournament with Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani leading the line. Croatia had to go via the playoffs but they are a talented squad who will be troublesome opponents providing they can group together and leave the egos at the door. Colombia are working with a similar squad to the one that earned many plaudits in Brazil four years ago and the re-emergence of Radamel Falcao in that time will only aid any hopes of doing well.
The Others…
It would be remiss of us to preview the World Cup without discussing the hosts but Russia are going to do well to get out of their group let alone anything else. They’ve not won any of their last five friendly matches – albeit most against top nations – and whilst they have been given a chance being drawn in a group with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the aforementioned Uruguay, they will still be up against it. It’s a young squad that has not played a competitive game in two years, but they have the benefit of playing at home so that will be an advantage at least.
It would be hugely surprising if the winner comes from a team yet to be mentioned but there are some interesting contenders for other reasons who will be making their way to Russia this summer. Panama are making their debut at a World Cup having beaten out USA in CONCACAF qualification and will be joined in making their debut by minnows Iceland. Iceland had a memorable Euro 2016 when reaching the quarter finals and they will be determined to make their mark on the world stage this time. Two excellent qualification campaigns have proven it is not a fluke and they will be there on merit.
Now we’ve looked at the main contenders and some others, the next preview will look at the betting angle of it all.
