It hasn’t been a great week for US President Donald Trump who saw his former campaign manager Paul Manafort convicted of financial crimes. Then Trump’s ex-lawyer and fixture Michael Cohen took a plea deal on eight counts of tax fraud, bank fraud and, critically, campaign finance violations. Within it, Cohen has directly implicated Trump in electoral campaign corruption.
Cohen said his crimes of paying hush-money were ‘on behalf of a candidate with the purpose of influencing the election’. But this could be the tip of the iceberg as Cohen has stated that he will willingly tell the truth about anything he knows to further any investigation in the ongoing investigations into potential collusion with Russia that Trump and his campaign underwent to manipulate the 2016 presidential elections.
Bettors jump on political markets
That naturally sparked up some interest in the political markets and Betfair’s price on him surviving a full term fell to 1.53 odds. The bookmaker also saw the odds on Trump leaving office in 2018 to 10.00 odds, while the odds on Trump winning the 2020 Presidential Election drifted to 2.72 odds with the exchange.
Meanwhile Paddy Power have Trump at 6/4 to last the full term in office* (betting odds taken on August 23rd, 2018 at 9:08 pm).
But at this point of the game impeachment remains unlikely and that is because the power of the US Senate is still with Trump’s Republican party. There are midterm elections this November which is likely to see the House of Representatives come under the control of the Democrats and even if they vote for Impeachment there, it may not get through the next step of the Senate. So the most likely way he goes is by resigning.
Trump’s odds have been cut to 4/6 for him to impeached by the House in his first term* (betting odds taken on August 23rd, 2018 at 9:08 pm). In contrast, he is at 6/1 to be impeached by the Senate* (betting odds taken on August 23rd, 2018 at 9:08 pm).
The natural instinct of punters in all this scandal is to go with the Impeachment option but it’s not that straightforward or easy to pull off. The Republican party would have to turn against their President but if the party loses heavily in the mid-terms then that could be a catalyst for them to rally against Trump.
US 2020 Presidential Election Winner Odds
Donald Trump 11/8
Kamala Harris 9/1
Bernie Sanders 9/1
Elizabeth Warren 10/1
Joe Biden 14/1
Mike Pench 14/1
Cory Booker 25/1
Kirsten Gillibrand 22/1
Oprah Winfrey 28/1
Michelle Obama 33/1
Bar 50/1
* (betting odds taken on August 23rd, 2018 at 9:08 pm)
