There has been some big movement in the Next Conservative Leader betting market this week. The race to succeed Boris Johnson is firmly taking place.
With one of the favourites, Ben Wallace not contesting the leadership, it has opened the political betting market wide open. The list of contenders is now confirmed and our betting experts take a look at the latest standings.
Next Conservative Leader odds
Penny Mordaunt 7/4
Rishi Sunak 7/4
Liz Truss 10/3
Kemi Badenoch 10/1
Tom Tugendhat 16/1
Jeremy Hunt 33/1
50/1 bar
* (odds recorded at 21:16 GMT on July 12th, 2022 at Paddy Power)
Kemi Badenoch Next Conservative Leader Betting odds trimmed
There has been a big move in the Next Conservative Leader odds for Kemi Badenoch who has been trimmed into 10/1 from 33/1* (odds recorded at 21:16 GMT on July 12th, 2022 at Paddy Power).
The shifting odds have been prompted by Badenoch receiving the backing of Michael Gove this week in the leadership race. The politician has been serving as Minister of State for Levelling Up Communities and Minister of State for Equalities since 2021.
Badenoch joined the Conservative Party in 2005 and unlike a lot of her rivals in the race to be the next Conservative Party Leader, the Saffron Walden MP has never held a cabinet-level job.
Sunak and Mordaunt are joint-favourite
There is now a very tight race at the head of the Next Conservative Leader betting market. Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak has been joined by Penny Mordaunt at 7/4* (odds recorded at 21:16 GMT on July 12th, 2022 at Paddy Power).
Sunak, who quit the cabinet before PM Boris Johnson announced his resignation, was backed by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps in the race. Shapps himself pulled out of the leadership contest to support Sunak.
Trade Minister Mordaunt does appear to be gathering some big momentum, however. Early polls after the announcement of the candidates hint that she is a strong player in the public’s eye. Only Sunak has received more endorsements in this current race.
Race timetable set
The timetable for the race to become the next leader of the Conservative Party has been set. The first stage was the final nominations which was at 6 pm on Tuesday, July 12th.
Any candidates had to get enough backing to get into the race. Support from at least 20 MPs was needed.
The final nominations are:
- Kemi Badenoch (Former Equalities Minister)
- Suella Braverman (Attorney General)
- Rehman Chishti (Foreign Office Minister)
- Jeremy Hunt (Former Foreign Secretary)
- Sajid Javid (Former Health Secretary)
- Penny Mordaunt (Trade Minister)
- Rishi Sunak (Former Chancellor)
- Liz Truss (Foreign Secretary)
- Tom Tugendhat (Foreign Affairs Committee Chair)
- Nadhim Zahawi (Chancellor)
How the leadership race is run
There will be rounds of voting happening now from Conservative MPs until the field of candidates is eventually whittled down to two.
When the race gets down to that stage, then the voting will be open to all current members of the Conservative Party to decide the next leader and therefore, the next Prime Minister.
- Tuesday, July 12 (Nominations close at 18:00)
- Wednesday, July 13 (First round of voting among Tory MPs)
- Thursday, July 14 (Second round of voting among Tory MPs)
- Monday, July 18 (Third round of voting among Tory MPs, if required)
- Thursday, July 21 (Deadline for whittling down to the final two candidates)
- Monday, September 5 (Next Conservative leader announced)
A few stats for the Next Conservative Leader betting*
- Four of the last six Conservative Leadership contests have been won by the youngest candidate on the ballot
The youngest name in the race for this contest is 42-year-old Rishi Sunak. The last two races however have been won by older candidates (Theresa May, Boris Johnson).
- Five of the last nine leadership contests have been won by a London-based MP candidate.
In 2022 there are no London-based MP’s in the race. But there are five from South East England an area which has produced three previous winners. Braverman, Chisti, Hunt, Mordaunt and Tugendhat are SouthEast-based candidates.
- None of the previous Leadership races has been won by a candidate that had lost a previous contest
There have been eight previous candidates entering a leadership race having lost one before. None of them was successful the second time around. This year Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid have both lost a previous leadership contest (2019).
- Three of five previous candidates to have held the Foreign Secretary role have won a Conservative leadership race
Of this year’s contestants, Both Jeremy Hunt and Liz Truss have held the Foreign Secretary office. The roles of Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary and Education Secretary are the joint next most successful previous roles with two wins each.
- No previous Health Secretary (6) or Defence Secretary (4) entering a new Conservative leadership race has won
Of the 2022 entries, Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid have held the Health Secretary Role, while Penny Mordaunt has held the Defence Secretary office.
*stats based on Conservative Leadership contests from 1965 when the current selection process was introduced.
