Betting on non-winning teams in the Premiership

Football Leagues and Stats

Betting on non-winning teams in the Premiership

An odd title for an article but that is what I am going to dwell on. Teams that don’t win.
Most selections are made around a teams winning chances. I want to look in the other
direction and look at teams that fail to win.
It might not appear to be a good way to try to beat the bookie but remember, any winner is
a good winner.
In the Premiership only THREE teams have won more games than they have LOST and DRAWN.
Chelsea are bang on the halfway mark.

The present positions, in league ranking are as follows.

Man. Utd.         59.1%     40.9%
Arsenal           60.9      39.1
Man. City         54.2      45.8
Chelsea           50.0      50.0
Spurs             43.5      56.5
Sunderland        37.5      62.5
Newcastle         34.8      65.2
Bolton.           30.4      69.6
Stoke.            39.1      60.9
Liverpool         34.8      65.2
Blackpool         36.4      63.6
Blackburn         34.8      65.2
Everton           21.7      78.3
Fulham            21.7      78.3
W.B.A.            31.8      68.2
Aston Villa       26.1      73.9
Birmingham        18.2      81.8
Wigan             17.4      82.6
Wolves            26.1      73.9
W.H.U.            16.7      83.3
     Figures correct at week-ending 22nd January.

Some of these figures are hard to digest. West Ham for instance have won just 0NE out of every
SIX games they’ve played. However, Wolves sitting just one place above them win ONE in every
FOUR games. Another team that would seem to be "misplaced" is West Brom. They’re winning almost
ONE in every THREE games whilst two teams directly above them are winning at very slightly better
than ONE in FIVE games.

What to do with these figures? They’re not really much use in winner finding but I do think 
they can be used either to avoid backing losers or for LAYING under certain circumstances.
Teams who look to be in a false position according to how many matches they have lost are….
Everton. 26.1% losses. Just slightly worse than ONE in FOUR games.
Fulham   30.4% losses. Losing just THREE out of every Ten games.
Birmingham 31.8% losses. Just very slightly worse than Fulham.
It’s obvious from these figures that these three sides are drawing more than is good for
their health. Good for punters who go after DRAWS tho’.

Man Utd stand out however for their current form is fairly exceptional. THEIR NON-WIN figure
is made up totally of drawn games. So they are winning 3 and drawing 2 of every five matches.
Unfortunately they don’t do anything for the punter. Their win odds are fairly restrictive whist
they’re in this form. On the other side of the coin, the bottom clubs won’t be much use to punters
on their present form. The odds offered when trying to LAY them are not very inspiring.
So once again I suggest keeping to the MIDDLE TEN teams in the table when making your choice.
If nothing else you will find that the prices on offer are much more realistic for the job in hand.

Some other stats I’ve come across make interesting reading.
Stoke and West Brom have not been beaten, this season, once they have taken the lead.
Arsenal and Man. U are the sides which have been ahead most often. Surprisingly United have given that lead away four times.
Worst offenders, in terms of points dropped thru’ giving away a lead, are Aston Vills who were ahead in 12 games and Liverpool who were ahead in 14 games. Both have dropped 14 points.
Wigan and West Brom are the two bottom sides when it comes to taking the lead. Both have done so in only 8 matches.

Remember, bet responsibly. Only use money you can afford to lose.

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