Betting stats on odds-on away winners

Football Leagues and Stats

Betting stats on odds-on away winners

Looking through some results I chanced upon something which I think will be useful. Even if only occasionally.
I looked thru’ the usual Euro winter leagues and the usual summer leagues. One thing stood out. ODDS-ON away teams didn’t do too well.

In fact in some leagues it was possible to bet the two other options when the AWAY SIDE WAS ODDS-ON, and make a level-stakes profit over the season. The profit won’t make you a millionaire overnight, but nevertheless it set me thinking.

Then last week-end I noticed that Man Utd were being offered to LAY at 1.65. Now, in my book, Birmingham at home to Man Utd just didn’t look like an Away. To me the Man Utd LAY was real value. So I placed my bet. Then I didn’t manage to get back to my PC until half time. 1- 0 to Birmingham. So I took stock. The only way I could lose was if United turned the tables. so I then went for United to win 2 – 1. I was prepared to wait for either  United to get to 2 – 1 or for Birmingham to lead 2 – 1 and then back either 1 – 3  or 2 – 3, as was needed. As it turned out I just had to wait for the final whistle at 1 – 1.

It then struck me that I could perhaps combine the past results and the strategy I’d used for that game and maybe find an "edge". Thinking about it, it’s really a case of LAYING the ODDS-ON AWAY TEAM or LAYING THE ODDS AGAINST HOME TEAM. For myself, I think that laying the away team will give more scope for the CORRECT SCORE bet(s).

The biggest headache with this kind of bet is, when to actually put your money down. before the kick-off, at half-time or at some other point. This decision must be down to personal preference. Another problem is STAKING. Now, I’m not a whiz when it comes to Spreadsheets but being able to use one would be an enormous help when "hedging" the CORRECT SCORES.

Perhaps someone out there would like to give a lead on the subject.
Some of the stats I’ve garnered are…………….
PREMIERSHIP.  35 Aways @ ODDS-ON.  19 SUCCESSFUL.  54%
ITALY.        29 Aways             20              69%
GERMANY       17 Aways              8              47%
FRANCE        11 Aways              6              54%
HOLLAND       22 Aways             17              77%
PORTUGAL.     20 Aways             13              65%

From these figures it shows where the likeliest "good things" are most likely to appear. However I believe with a little thought a strategy can be woven to suit the individual. Contrary to popular belief, the person who decides to "swim against the tide" is much more likely to get that little bit extra by way of odds whether with a bookie or an exchange. Indeed, exchanges are now, probably less of a draw to those seeking "that lttle bit extra" as betting bots are on the job before the average Joe even has time to notice which odds have changed.

So don’t be afraid to "go it alone" with an individual strategy.


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