Betting Systems – The start – backing home teams

Football Leagues and Stats

Betting System – The start

In the search for a winning system I’ll endeavour to begin with something simple.
A method of backing HOME teams but not at too short odds.

Whilst backing teams isn’t hard, choosing those that will give you the best chance of success isn’t too easy.
I want to approach the selection method from a different angle to most.

I’m going to suggest that we choose our match(es) from the league(s) which most favour home wins. I also intend to stick with the main European Leagues, at least during the winter.

The leagues which are at present showing ABOVE AVERAGE home returns, in percentage terms,  are …

English Premiership       52.5                3.04
Spanish Primera           49.2                2.73
French Division 1         48.9                2.50
Italy Serie "A"           47.1                2.51
Dutch Eredivision         46.7                2.90
Portuagal Supa Liga       42.0                2.33

The second column is the average "goals per game" in the corresponding league. I’ve included this as a pointer as, obviously, the more goals scored in a game, the more likely there is to be a definite result. And as home sides tend to have an edge in high scoring games, it will be useful  in our search for winners.

Now we come to the nitty gritty.  Price range.
This must be done on a league for league basis. There isn’t a lot between most leagues but just enough to make a difference.

Premiership.         1.26   to   2.00
                     2.26   to   2.50        59.56%
Primera.             2.26   to   2.50
                     3.01   to   3.25        42.25%
French 1             2.01   to   2.75        42.40%
Serie "A"            1.26   to   1.75
                     2.01   to   2.50        57.60%
Eredivision.         1.76   to   2.25
                     2.76   to   3,25        43.35%
Portugal S. Liga     2.26   to   2.50        43.66%

The percentage figures are how the range(s) given can be expected to perform on an average day.The "normal" percentage of home wins, under all circumstances is generally considered  to be a little under 45%.

The figures I have set out above are not necessarily the best for each league. However they are the ODDS RANGES in that particular league which are PERFORMING ABOVE EXPECTATIONS.
It is obvious from some of these figures that some leagues have a greater scope than the others for finding potential  winners.
Keep your picks from the ranges above and don’t forget to give consideration to historic results, too. Many a possible embarrassing result can be foreseen this way.

As stated earlier I’ve mainly stuck to winter leagues but for anyone who prefers summer football, (well there must be someone, somewhere)  I’ve also looked at these for the "break".

Brazil  Braziliero       51.6                 2.88
Sweden  Superetten.      45.8                 2.92
America MLS.             47.6                 2.54

Price Ranges.

Braziliero           1.76   to   2.75
                     3.01   to   3.25         46.79%
Superetten           2.01   to   2.25
                     3.01   to   3.50         37.83%
M.L.S.               1.76   to   2.00
                     2.26   to   3.50         43.56%

There are many other leagues you can choose from. I’ve stayed with those that are more to be "In-play" on Betfair. Mainly because they offer a greater range of bets to the punter.

Next time I’ll run the rule over "AWAYS".


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