Betting Tips for backing a draw in football betting – a look at the Stats

Trading at Betting Exchanges

What is the value of a drawn bet? When you are looking over fixed odds outright prices for football betting, the option of the draw rarely gets utilised. Is there are much chance of a draw happening as a home win or an away win? Realistically, in a perfect world of parity, there would be an equal 33% chance of one happening when stood against the other two outright results. But because the majority of the time there is an outright favourite for a football match, nothing is ever broken down as simply as the above percentages. If Man Utd are playing West Ham at Old Trafford, really there is not as much chance of a draw or an away win happening as there is as a home win. This is because United are much better than West Ham, so the numbers of potentiality really get torn apart. There may only realistically be about a 15% chance of a draw, with a 5% probability surrounding a Hammers win, leaving United at 80% to win the match. That is the basic way to look at things, you can explore probability and work out percentages of outcomes happening by taking a look at our guide here.

But when it comes to the draw, punters often overlook the outcome, so, noticing a bit of a trend going on in the Premier League this season, it is worth exploring the possibility of a drawn match a little more. A drawn match often presents good odds, and this is because it is harder to call in your football predictions than it is a strong home win for example. The first place to look, is which teams have a preference for drawing matches this season, and who are running high in drawn match streaks. There are two ways to look at streaks, either the punter will decide that a streak has to be broken at some time, while other punters will ride a streak for all that it is worth. It is an unavoidable situation/coincidence, call it what you will, that force streaks to happen, and a lot of bettors do look for them in football stats and become and important part of planning a betting strategy for the weekend’s matches.

Current Premier League Draw Streaks

Sunderland – 4 matches
Bolton – 3 matches
Fulham – 3 matches
Man United – 2 matches
West Brom – 1 match
West Ham – 1 match

Premier League 2010/11 Drawn Match Statistics

August 2010
14th to 16th coupon – 4/10
21st to 23rd coupon – 2/10
28th to 29th coupon – 4/10
August Total: 30 matches played, of which 30% were drawn

September 2010
11th to 13th coupon – 5/10
18th to 19th coupon – 4/10
25th to 26th coupon – 4/10
September Total: 30 matches played, 43.3% of which were drawn

October 2010
2nd to 3rd coupon – 3/10
Total: 10 matches played, of which 30% have been drawn matches

70 matches played, with 26 draws, which equates to a total of around 37% having ended in drawn matches so far this season. This is actually something to be expected, and is around the right figure to look at. In the 2009/10 Barclays Premier League season, out of 380 matches played over the season, 25% of those were drawn matches. So when you start looking around there is definite potential in picking out drawn matches. In all of the coupons for a set weekend of fixtures in the Premier League, you have almost at least a solid 30% chance of  at least three matches ending in draws. There has only been one weekend so far which has produced less than 3 drawn matches in a coupon. Four of the seven coupons have ended with 4 out of 10 matches being drawn, which adds up to 40% of matches being drawn over the weekend. If you remember playing the Pools Coupon, then you’ll probably be smiling at those percentages. If you like those percentages, then you will see that drawn match betting is something worth exploring. Looking at the streaks, if Sunderland was playing Bolton then you have a pretty good shot at getting that right. Reading stats will certainly help you pick out a drawn match, and if you go based on the figures above, you should be looking around two to three matches out of the coupon being drawn, and that gives you a fair crack of the whip at picking something out. Don’t immediately dismiss the drawn match odds in your football betting, it can really pay off if you study it well. If you are still not convinced that a drawn outright fixed odds is worth looking having a punt at over a win, then there are good alternative options to look at.

Asian Handicap
This is probably the best way to try and cover your bases on games which are close to call, or even in ones like the Man Utd v West Ham example above, in where you think there is a chance of an upset. By starting a match and backing the underdog to hang on to a draw with a handicap start, can often pay off well. For example, if you took West Ham at a +1.50 Asian Handicap and they hang on for a draw, you will win, and will also pick up a win if the Hammers lost by no more than one goal. There are definite advantages to backing an underdog with an Asian Handicap, and is worth exploring next time you are thinking that an underdog may just hang on and tough out a draw.

Not Losing on Draws

Draw No Bet
This is a popular little side bet for people who aren’t quite sure in their betting. This is not going to bring you any profit for a drawn match, but it does give you some coverage if a draw ends in a match. Say you took Arsenal in a Draw No Bet option against Chelsea. If Arsenal win, great, there’s profit in your pocket, but if they are held to a draw, then you will at least get your stake back. Because there is a bit of a safety net with a Draw No Bet option, you are not going to find the odds as strong as outright market selection prices, naturally.

Never underestimate the power of promotions in your football betting. Bet365 for example offer a stake refund on matches that end in a 0-0 draw. Certain markets will be rewarded, which is always a nice relief and Stan James also offer Goalscorer market refunds if matches run out to a 0-0 draw as well.