LAY the Draw – in a different way

THE OLD CHESTNUT

Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

The old chestnut LAY THE DRAW, has once again become the subject of a lot of discussion on the internet. Quite a normal happening at the start of each season. As you will probably be aware this strategy was quite a money cow in the past. Until the bookies realised it’s potential and began trimming the odds not only of the initial draw price but also of the team scoring the first goal of the game.
Since the odds began to diminish the alternative strategies have begun to emerge. However, no matter what type of changes are made there is always the resident bugbear. The NIL-NIL scoreline. Some punters will argue that you need insurance and must cover the scoreless draw, others are completely against it. Myself I think that it’s a case where statistics can play a big part in deciding whether or not to cover the dreaded 0 – 0. So I decided to check out SIX of the most classier leagues in Europe. I couldn’t find stats for Italy. Hopefully, I will later.

Some of the stats that I unearthed were a little surprising. Whilst the expected returns from Holland were up to scratch German and Spain were quite close together.

Over the seven year span England’s Premiership produced 221 goalless draws, from a total of 2660 matches. Working out at a little better than 8% of games played. or just ONE such drawn game in every TWELVE.

A little worse than this was Frances performance in there Ligue One. From the same number of games they produced 282 goalless games, On the thick side of 10% or ONE game in every 10.

Portugal’s Primera Liga also returned an average of 10% of their programme. Their stats were, 169 such games for a smidgen over 10% from just 1680 matches. In other words One in Ten games ended in a scoreless stalemate.

Germany’s Bundesliga One, played a total of 2142 games over the period and 157 of these ended without a goal being scored. Giving a percentage of a touch greater than 7. Or One every 14 games.

Top of the shop was as expected Holland’s Eridivisie. Playing the same number of games as Germany, only 121 of them failed to see at least one goal go in. Their average of 5.6% is by far the outstanding figure of the group. Only having one goalless game in every EIGHTEEN.

Spain’s Primera Division was the last team in the group. They played the same number of games as both England and France, 2660 but had only 199 without a goal being scored. A percentage of 7.5, giving them a return of one goalless game in every thirteen.

The small table below may make sorting the wheat from the chaff a little easier.

Goalless Draws - Stats 2006/7 to 2012/13

League matches total 0-0 %  
Premiership 2660 211 8.3% 1/12
Ligue 1 2660 282 10.6% 1/10
Premera Liga 1680 169 10.1% 1/10
Bundesliga 1 2142 157 7.3% 1/14
Eredivisie 2142 121 5.6% 1/18
Primera Division 2660 199 7.5% 1/13

Obviously it would be foolish to expect these figures to be repeated. Some may well do better but some will undoubtedly do worse. It will pay to keep up to date with the action in these leagues and keep complete records of important factors.

If you are bent on following Lay the Draw then stay with the leagues which have the lower percentage of 0 – 0 results in their stats. It will make sense and in the long run will be more profitable than backing 0 – 0 as an insurance bet.

Bet with spare cash only.


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