Finding those draws and forecasting skills

FINDING THOSE DRAWS

Football Leagues and Stats

Not the easiest of tasks. Just check the record of any football forecaster in any newspaper.
How do we find them then?
Well the professional forecasters don’t do very well for the larger part of any season.
The average newspaper tipster will try to find between 8 and 12 draws on the average Saturday. If he has a good day he’ll maybe get 3 correct. Some weeks he’ll do much better, but over any period of time he’ll do very well to hit 25 percent. Just check the end of season DRAWS TABLE.

Have you tried to find those elusive 8 draws for the TREBLE CHANCE POOL? No matter what type of perm you use, what really matters is how you choose your matches.

It’s not much use going by FORM. If form draws materialise the dividend isn’t worth having because everybody and his dog are on them.
Choose your numbers and your perm and then sit back and wait? Not really there’s more work to be done than that.
Decide how many teams you need for your perm. Then choose just ONE THIRD of them from the 49 on the coupon. The other TWO THIRDS choose themselves by the system known as WHEELING. WHEELING is taking the numbers you already have chosen and making each one the meat in a sandwich with the number on either side of it on the coupon. So that in reality you have THREE CONSECUTIVE matches marked as draws.

Say your first coupon number you’ve marked for a draw is 4, then your WHEELING NUMBERS will be 3 and 5. Simple but very effective, as draws more often than not tend materialise in small groups of 2 or 3. Just check previous results. Not every week but often enough
for the collection of some lucrative dividends.

A selection of 6 matches, say, 3-10-17-25-35-42, would when you apply the WHEELING principle, become 2-3-4 9-10-11 16-17-18
24-25-26 34-35-36 and 41-42-43. Now having found your selections you just need to find a perm with a fairly tight guarantee.
On the other hand, should you fancy a wider spread, you can try on of the lesser known coupon publishers. The cheaper cost per line gives scope for a much wider coverage. The dividends will, though, be less than from the BIG BOYS.

Something I’ve done in the past is choose 10 numbers and covered them with the WHEELING SYSTEM to give a total of 30 matches.
Depending on the original numbers chosen this could give maybe 6 consecutive matches covered. Allowing the way the results can and often do, fall, this will be to your advantage. Just find a good perm with a decent guarantee.

FORECASTING SKILLS.

How good are you at forecasting, say, 4 matches on the average SHORT LIST of your favourite FIXED ODDS COUPON?
The SHORT LIST is usually the hardest to get to grips with. These are the games that the bookmakers believe will prove the hardest for you to forecast correctly.
Theoretically the odds against successfully forecasting 4 matches is 80/1. That’s 3x3x3x3. To be successful you’d need to have FOUR winning forecast at odds of more than 2/1 for each of them. Sounds simple, but the reality is not that likely.
So the answer is to reduce the number of possible outcomes.
The total number of combinations for the 4 matches look like this:

111111111111111111111111111 222222222222222222222222222 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
111111111222222222xxxxxxxxx 111111111222222222xxxxxxxxx 111111111222222222xxxxxxxxx
111222xxx111222xxx111222xxx 111222xxx111222xxx111222xxx 111222xxx111222xxx111222xxx
12x12x12x12x12x12x12x12x12x 12x12x12x12x12x12x12x12x12x 12x12x12x12x12x12x12x12x12x

Anyone intending to use this method would do well to write this set out and keep it in a plastic wallet. When we begin to strike combinations out it can be done with wipe clean pens etc and re-used time and again.
Listing the combinations is the easy part Now we need to reduce then to a level which will prove advantageous to us.
An easy way to start is to make A TWO-WAY FORECAST for each  of your 4 matches.
Let’s suppose your selections are-  1x, x2, 12 and 2x. Next let’s set them out as 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16 lines.

1111 1111 xxxx xxxx
xxxx 2222 xxxx 2222
1122 1122 1122 1122
2x2x 2x2x 2x2x 2x2

We now delete these 16 lines from the original 81. Seems a silly thing to do but think about it. If you could successfully forecast 4 results with two-way forecasts you’d already be a rich man. Now we’re left with 65 lines from the original 81.
Still too many to handle, from a staking point of view. So now we need another set of two-way forecasts to be able to delete more lines from the original.
So lets look at the 4 two-ways we’ve already used . The first was 1 – x. So we use the third possible result for that game.
That being 2. Then we use the obvious alternative which is a X. We do the same with the other three matches. So x-2 becomes 1-x, 1-2 becomes x-1 and 2-x is now 1-x. The new set of lines is

2222 2222 xxxx xxxx
1111 xxxx 1111 xxxx
xx11 xx11 xx11 xx11
1x1x 1x1x 1x1x 1x1x

This will allow us to delete a further 16 lines from the original set. That leaves 49 lines. So now we enlist the aid of any newspaper which gives a match by match summary of 1-2-x selections . The Sun does this on Tuesdays.There are other papers or may be more comprehensive.

We then note the best and second best votes for each match. These can be used unless they are precisely the same as either of the two sets we have already used. If this is so take the second and third choices for the first and last matches. (It’s really a case of using your experience if such a problem occurs).

We should be able to delete enough games from this last set to give us more than a sporting chances of making a profit when we have the winning line.
One extra point, always delete any line that doesn’t contain at least ONE HOME WIN forecast.
With this set-up 4 winners of at least 6/4 will return 39 pts. 4 winners of at least 7/4 would return 57 pts.
It only takes the odd 3/1 shot to be amongst your winning line and the returns begin to be really worthwhile.

If you don’t fancy going for four winners, try for three. The system working are the same.
Three matches have a theoretical outcome of 26/1. (3x3x3). Your blocks of TWO-WAY forecasts will only come to eight.
two deletion blocks of 8 should leave you with 11 lines to play. 3 winners at 6/4 returns a little over 15 pts and three at 7/4
returns a touch over 20 pts.
I used the three match block successfully many years ago when the coupons had a Points Pool and a Results Pool.
Those really were the days.

If this “hits the spot” I’ll try to find others of a similar nature.

Don’t forget, BET RESPONSIBLY.

 


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