Foreign Comebacks

Italian Serie A

Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

I thought an ideal place to look for closely fought matches would be the Italian leagues as they do have a reputation for being defensive. So I had a dig into some Serie A results. Funnily enough they are not dissimilar to our own Premiership. In total there have been less than 50 games ending the first half at 1 – 1, in each season I’ve looked at. Altogether I’ve checked thru’ 1520 matches without including the current season’s results. These I’ll tabulate at the end on the article.

Season 2009/10
This season had by far the largest number of half-time 1 – 1 scores of those looked at. There were 45 such matches. The eventual outcomes was 18 Homes,(40%) 10 Aways(22%) and 17 Draws.(37%) An alternative view was, 16 of the matches (35.5%) were won by the team Best Placed in the league table at the time of the games being played. There were 12 occasions when the WORST PLACED side came off best.(26.6%). So there were, of course, 17 level pegging at the final whistle. (37.7%). Incidentally 8 of these “Best Placed” wins came in the first eight weeks of the season. The final scores of these games throws up some interesting possibilities. There were 13 games anding 1 – 1, 12 ended 2 – 1 and 7 ended 1 – 2. This accounts for 32 out of the 45 matches covered. 71%. The possibilities of dutching these three scores has some merit. An alternative would be to back UNDER 3.5 goals.

Season 2010/2011
There were fewer 1 – 1 half-time games in this season. Only 38 this time which ended 12 Homes,(31.6%) 11 Aways (29%) and 15 draws.(39%). The alternative break-down ended, 17 Best Placed came out on top and only 6 of the winning sides were placed lower in the league table when the games started. the remainder were, of course, Draws. The dominant scores were once again 1 – 1, 2 – 1 and 1 – 2. There were 25 in total which gives 66%. Once again, dutching them or betting UNDER 3.5 goals would have been successful. Here, again, Best Placed sides were more successful in the first 8 weeks of the season with 7 successes coming in that time.

Season 2011/12
Only 2 fewer than the previous season ended as 1 – 1 at half-time. However the make-up of the final results was…….15 of them ended as Home wins (41.6%). Quite a difference to the previous season. Coming into line with the 2009/10 season. There were 7 Aways (19.4%) and 14 Draws.(39%). The draws percentage has held-up but the aways were decidedly a let-down. The Best Placed figures are quite a let-down. Only 9 such sides were successful. A mere 25%. Worst Placed managed 13 wins. (36%). The Draws come out at 39%. This seasons appears to be a bit of an enigma. Or perhaps it was the Law of Averages trying to even some stats out. The favoured scores were 1 – 1 x6, 2 – 1 x6, 1 – 2 x4, 2 – 2 x7. Nothing really outstanding.

Season 2012/13
Once again there were only 36 matches which met the criteria we set out. The break-up was as follows…..Homes 10 (27.7%), Aways 10, (27.7%) Draws 16 (44.4%). Here again the Draws were well to the fore and bettered the three previous seasons returns. Best Placed figures 14 winners. 38.8%. Worst Placed just 6 winners. 16.6% and Draws 44.4%. Finals scores were skewed as there were 12 x 1 – 1.

Season 2013/14
The final week of Serie A has just completed so I can add them to this article. There was a rise in the number of games which interest us. 43 in total. These ended as 14 home wins 12 Aways and 17 draws. Best Placed sides won 17 matches , while 9 Worst Placed were winners. Once again the Draws were as consistent as ever. Final scores were shared pretty well across the 4 lowest possible. 1 – 1 = 8, 2 – 1= 6, 1 – 2 = 7 and 2 – 2 returned 6. These four together being responsible for 62.8% of the final scores.

I’ve set out a couple of tables which should help to assimilate the stats without too much to-ing and fro-ing.

Serie A - Half Time 1 - 1 / Full Time results

  2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Played 45 38 36 36 43
Home 18 (40.0%) 12 (31.6%) 15 (41.7%) 10 (27.8%) 17 (39.5%)
Away 10 (22.2%) 11 (28.9%)  7 (19.4%) 10 (27.8%)  9 (20.9%)
Draw 17 (37.8%) 15 (39.5%) 14 (38.9%) 16 (44.4%) 17 (39.5%)

Serie A - Half Time 1 - 1 / Full Time Popular Scores

Season 1 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 2 3+ 3+ %
2009/10 13 12 7 4  9 20.0%
2010/11 11 10 4 2 11 28.9%
2011/12  6  6 4 7 13 36.1%
2012/13 12  3 2 4 15 51.6%
2013/14  8  6 7 6 16 37.2%

Serie A - Half Time 1 - 1 / Full Time Draws

Season Best
Placed
Worst
Placed
Draws
2009/10 16 12 17
2010/11 17  6 15
2011/12  9 13 14
2012/13 14  6 16
2013/14 17  9 17

Hopefully these stats will help when faced with a problem when things haven’t gone the way they were supposed to have gone. Something which happens all too often when betting on football matches. I also think that these figures will open ways for a few strategies to be evolved. There will be ways to use the DRAW stats to advantage. Some stats will point to being able to lay a team under certain conditions.
Some of the low scoring games are ideal for DUTCHING two or three scores. Checking historical returns should give many pointers to low scoring matches. Whilst some other games will be ideal for backing OVER 3.5 goals.

Those of you who enjoy delving into stats etc, as |I do, will find ways to use these stats and add their own filters to build on the best of these returns. It just requires a little research. Or if really intent on getting the best from the stats, a lot of research.

Whichever applies to you, Good Luck, but only bet what you can afford to lose.


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