It’s not easy to find stats relating purely to FIRST HALF of matches. Which is a pity because any match can really be a GAME of TWO HALVES.
However what stats are available can, hopefully, be put to good use.
Whilst the half-time result can have a bearing on the eventual outcome, there are many aspects of the first half happenings which can be put to good financial use, on their own accord.
A very simple bet is to DUTCH the FIRST GOAL MINUTES market. The first consideration we must look at in this case is, DO WE EXPECT FIRST HALF GOALS? The answer of course must be yes. Otherwise we’re wasting out time.
The best indication of possible goals often lies in the outcome of previous games between the two sides. Unfortunately I have yet to find any stats site which gives information on the half-time scores. The best marker then is to check on the current scoring habits of the protagonists. These can easily be found and often with the actual goal scoring minutes.
More involved strategies are being evolved with monotonous regularity by those who regularly put such things on the market with the hopes of parting the punter and his cash even more efficiently that the bookmakers does. So actually finding one that works and doesn’t cost an arm and a leg is quite some task.
If the punter is happy with a more realistic profit what I have in mind will be quite useful.
So first of all we need to find an answer to the question, “WHAT IS ACCEPTABLE, PROFITWISE?“.
Check through the advertising material that accompanies the wonderfully laid-out letters that introduce you to the intended seller. if they offer you anything over 50% return on each stake, forget it. If they drop down to a figure of maybe 15% then that is more realistic. Then it’s worth giving a second reading to the material but then you can give still put it in the dustbin because it will almost certainly be a re-hash of an older strategy. How many times have you seen a new “Lay The Draw” version being touted as DIFFERENT? But it never is.
What I’m going to look at is finding a match which will be level at half-time but a HOME win when it ends. Think back over a few games recently and try to guess how many matches would fit the bill. Cover some twenty matches and you’ll almost certainly come up with a figure well in advance of the actual number which was realised as “half-time DRAW and full-time HOME. Given this outcome you will wonder why I advocate using it.
SIMPLE. We not only back the game as mentioned, (a suitable game would be offered at around 6.0), we also back the GOAL MINUTES up to and including 41 to 50 mins.
The game I’m looking at is offering the following prices on goal minutes. 0 – 10 5.9 11 – 20 5.9 21 – 30 6.8 31 – 40 8.2 and 41 – 50 10.5. Dutching these prices for a round 100pts would return a profit of 42.2 pts. They you would need to fix your stake for the first part of the bet so that both either would return a profit. An alternative would be to include the
initial bet in the dutching and that would return 14.96 pts whichever of the six dutching bets was successful.
However that’s not all. It is possible and does happen, that you can pick-up on more than one market.
Picture this scenario. The away side score early on. (It does happen and often). GOAL MINUTES BET SUCCESSFUL.
Then the home side equalises before the interval,(1 – 1), then goes on to win the match. (again this does happen, often).
In this instance you’d have two winning bets. Not to be laughed at.
Then again, the teams are level at half-time (0 – 0). Then there is a quick goal after the interval (before the 51st minute).
The home side goes on to win. Again two winning bets. These situations are not rare either.
The main necessity is to find the suitable matches.
In my opinion, it is best to look for probable HOMES, although AWAYS will fit the bill if you’re so inclined.
As with most strategies, I recommend leaving out teams in the TOP FIVE league positions as well as the BOTTOM FIVE league positions.
I know this might sound a bit perverse but it’s usually matches which include these ten teams which turn up a “BET WRECKER“.
Another good reason to leave them alone is that the odds for their games are usually quite restrictive.
It is necessary to have a good DUTCHING CALCULATOR and for the odd occasion an ARBS calculator.
I don’t doubt that there will be those amongst you who are “better read” where staking is concerned and probably use a SPREADSHEET. More power to your elbow.
Another way of choosing possible matches is to find the likeliest teams from previous records. Matches which end x/1 (ht/ft), are not as many as one might think. In a recent season no team returned more than FIVE such results from their 19 home games. So another way has to be found to find suitable games. This will be subject for a future article.
Remember bet sensibly and only with money you can afford to lose.
