Halftime / Fulltime Stats – Football Betting Strategies


Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

I’m always interested in how team progress from the first half to the final whistle.
As there are NINE such possible outcomes I’m sure there will be a few surprises amongst them.

The favourite HALFTIME/FULLTIME outcome must of course be, HOME/HOME. Favourite it may appear to be but that is not always the case. This seasons returns, so far, show only THREE teams have a better than 50% return in the HOME/HOME results. Man City are top of the tree with 9 such results. Followed by both Man. Utd and ‘Spurs, with eight “double homes” each.
The top twelve are as follows.

Man. City  9 wins from 14 matches.
Man. Utd   8  ""   ""  14   ""
'Spurs     8  ""   ""  14   ""
Chelsea    5  ""   ""  14   ""
Newcastle  5  ""   ""  15   ""
Stoke      4  ""   ""  14   ""
Fulham     4  ""   ""  15   ""
Arsenal    3  ""   ""  14   ""
Bolton     3  ""   ""  14   ""
Liverpool  3  ""   ""  14   ""
Norwich    3  ""   ""  14   ""
Sunderland 3  ""   ""  14   ""
Blackburn  3  ""   ""  15   ""

So now we have an idea of which sides are likely to lead at half time and still be ahead at the final whistle.
One slight problem does appear though when the more successful sides are playing at home what kind of odds are we likely to be offered? Probably not anything like the “true” odds. An interesting way to try to assess the odds which would be “fair” odds for a game might be as follows. Divide the number of wins (9) by the number of games played (14) which is 0.643. Then divide this figure into 100. This gives 155.5. Then move the decimal point backwards by two places to give 1.55. That should be a fair indication of the “true odds” for a HOME/HOME outcome. (9/14 = 0.643) (100/ 0.643 = 155.5) (1.55/ 100 = 1.55).
Should a price above 1.55 be offered then I would consider it VALUE.

The second most popular HALFTIME/FULLTIME result must be Draw/Home. This is the basis of at least one strategy. It is surprising how fewer matches go this way than could be expected.
Best performer in this range is Arsenal, with seven X/1 results from a total of ten half time drawn games.

The top seven are as follows.

Arsenal    7 wins from 14 matches.
Man. City  5  ""   ""  14   ""
Everton    4  ""   ""  14   ""
Swansea    4  ""   ""  14   ""
Chelsea    3  ""   ""  14   ""
Man. Utd   3  ""   ""  14   ""
Newcastle  3  ""   ""  15   ""

For what has often been regarded as the second best Halftime/Fulltime outcome, these figures are a bit of a let down.
However I’m sure that there will be many punters who can put these stats to good use.

The stats for the Home/Draw result are more enlightening.
The more telling figures are from those teams that DO NOT have such a result in their records.
There are NINE sides yet to record such a finish so far this season.
These being Blackburn, Fulham and Wolves, from their 15 games. Followed by Arsenal, Stoke, WBA, Man. Utd, Man. City and ‘Spurs, from their 14 games.
Liverpool, Swansea, Everton and Norwich have two such results. The remaining seven sides have just one each.

The Home/Away result is almost as rare as Fergie giving Liverpool a compliment.
Wolves have thrown away three points, after leading at halftime, twice. Chelsea, surprisingly and Swansea have done likewise on one occasion each. No other sides have been so generous.

The most popular halftime result is according to stats the DRAW.
So next I’ll check out the DOUBLE DRAW.
There are six teams with three or more games ending all square at halftime and fulltime.

Wigan      6 from 15 matches
Liverpool  5  ""  14   ""
QPR.       4  ""  14   ""
Sunderland 3  ""  14   ""
Swansea    3  ""  14   ""
Fulham     3  ""  15   ""

Four sides have 2 such results. Six sides have just one and three have yet to oblige.

Next it’s the turn of the Draw/Away brigade. The sides that go from bad to worse, so to speak.
The most generous teams here are WBA and Blackburn giving away the points on SIX occasions each.

WBA        6 from 14 matches
Blackburn  6  ""  15   ""
Wolves     4  ""  15   ""
Bolton     3  ""  14   ""
Sunderland 3  ""  14   ""
A. Villa   2  ""  14   ""
Norwich    2  ""  14   ""
QPR        2  ""  14   ""
Everton    2  ""  14   ""

Four sides, Arsenal, Liverpool, Stoke and Chelsea have one such result. Seven sides have a ZERO.

The most interesting amongst the three remaining possibilities must be the sides who like to pretend Xmas comes
more than once a year (Away/Away). Only two sides have been scrooge-like on this occasion. Liverpool and Man. City have not
proved so generous to their visitors.
Wigan have proved the most visitor friendly in seven of their fifteen home game, so far.

Wigan      7 losses from 15 matches
Bolton     6   ""    ""  14   ""
A.Villa    4   ""    ""  14   ""
QPR        4   ""    ""  14   ""
Fulham     4   ""    ""  15   ""
Wolves     4   ""    ""  15   ""
Stoke      3   ""    ""  14   ""
Everton    3   ""    ""  14   ""
Blackburn  3   ""    ""  15   ""

Five sides have had two such results and four sides have suffered just once each.

Teams playing at home and giving away points are never too easy to find. As can be gathered from the Away/Draw results.
Even when all seems lost some teams can still make an effort to recover something to cheer their fans.
Three teams have each managed to salvage a point twice. Norwich and Stoke during their 14 games and Newcastle from 15 games.
Eight sides have not found themselves in that position during 14 games and one other in 15 games. Eight teams have faces that situation only once.
Unless there is anything in Head-to-Heads to suggest otherwise this appears to be one outcome to leave alone.

Finally Away/Home. Only FOUR sides have been successful in turning halftime defeat into fulltime victory. Fulham have done so twice in their 15 games. Chelsea and Sunderland once each in 14 games and Blackburn once in 15 games.

Hopefully these stats will be of help when assessing your match choices. They may not put you on to a bundle of certs but they may help you avert some of the stumbling blocks that seem to appear at the most inopportune moments.

Next time I’ll look at the other side of the coin and check through the similar stats from the AWAY teams viewpoint.