Football odds can often go as low as 1/5 (1.2). 1/5 represents a percentage possibility of winning @ 83.3.
The reverse of this would be 5/1 or 6.0. Percentage value would be 16.7. Which nicely when added to the 83.3 comes out at 100%. Assuming that this was a two outcome event (draw no bet) and these were the respective odds (possibilities), it would make a nice “round book”. Fine in theory, of course.
Now consider the same two prices as being for the home and away sides in a match. A third price would be needed for the DRAW. This would very likely be 11/4 (3.75). This would make the book OVER-ROUND by 26.7%.
Now in theory this would give the bookmaker a win, providing he’s laid each outcome to it’s full liability.
Being able to assess each match they are betting on, is a big help to any one looking at betting on football matches.
In reality, very few matches are so tight that the bookmaker will find at least one outcome is under funded. This is where your experience comes in to play. You need to assess each match you’re going to bet on.
How often would you say the team your want to back would win the fixture in say, 10 attempts? To come to a decision you would need to consider CURRENT FORM and, in my opinion, HEAD to HEAD form to see what sort of pattern emerges.
No matter what your slant on choosing your outcomes, knowing what your percentage chance is of being successful can be a big help in deciding on your stake for the bet. One thing you can’t allow for though is Sod’s Law.
Working to percentages can be quite intriguing too.
The table below will help to give you a good idea of your chances of success (in my article about odds and percentages you find an easy manuel how to make your own table).
The ODD columns are the odds you’ll find on your coupons and the EVEN columns the appropriate percentage.
Betting Odds Percentages Table
1-5 83.3 5-4 44.4 9-1 10.0 2-9 81.8 11-8 42.1 19-2 9.5 1-4 80.0 6-4 40.0 10-1 9.1 2-7 77.8 13-8 38.1 11-1 8.3 3-10 76.9 7-4 36.4 12-1 7.7 1-3 75.0 15-8 34.8 13-1 7.1 4-11 73.3 2-1 33.3 14-1 6.7 2-5 71.4 85-40 32.0 15-1 6.3 40-95 70.4 9-4 30.8 16-1 5.9 4-9 69.2 95-40 29.6 18-1 5.3 40-85 68.0 5-2 28.6 20-1 4.8 1-2 66.7 11-4 26.7 22-1 4.3 8-15 65.2 3-1 25.0 25-1 3.8 4-7 63.6 10-3 23.1 28-1 3.4 8-13 61.9 7-2 22.2 30-1 3.2 4-6 60.0 4-1 20.0 33-1 2.9 8-11 57.9 9-2 18.2 4-5 55.6 5-1 16.7 5-6 54.5 11-2 15.4 10-11 52.4 6-1 14.3 20-21 51.2 13-2 13.3 1-1 50.0 7-1 12.5 21-20 48.8 15-2 11.8 11-10 47.6 8-1 11.1 6-5 45.5 17-2 10.5
I haven’t ventured beyond 33-1 as that would be throwing money away. Wouldn’t it?
Now for something which takes me back many many years.
A TWO DRAW COUPON?
Whilst you can select two draws on fixed odds coupons this idea from 1976 was originally for the old style coupons.
I’ll keep to the actual wording where possible.
Take two draws as bankers and perm any two from a chosen number according to the amount you wish to stake.
So take TEN further potential draws in addition to your bankers. These will then “perm-out” at 45 lines.
The instructions would be:- Perm 2 bankers with any two from 10 selections. 45 lines @ ????
The BANKERS must be set out quite clearly on the coupon and in a separate column from the other 10 selections.
The beauty of this little plan is that ALL DRAWS COUNT. There’s no worrying about “no-score draws” causing you problems.
The plan requires a good selection method for the two bankers. The possibilities are very good if you can find a few draws in your other ten selections. Ideal for the weeks when there are enough draws to wreck hopes of a big divi on the treble chance. Even just four draws in the other ten would give you 6 winning lines. Just make sure your bankers are up to the job.
If you want a larger cover it could be wise to add another banker and perm 2 from 3. This would make the overall perm 135 lines.
Or even double your bankers with a 2 Bankers from 4. This would,of course double the outlay but does give much more scope.
Given that you have a sound selection method for your bankers I would suggest that you use the same coupon numbers for the other selections. I know this isn’t very scientific but that way you have a good chance to get one or even two of those shock draws.
Those that still wreck the treble chance coupons on most weeks.
Merciless Barrage (up-date).
July started and finished on a bum note. From a total of 17 bets there were 10 winners. However a bad run early on left us 119 pts adrift with 13 days to go. However a run of six consecutive winners pulled us in front. But due to poor S.P.s it needed a fine win by Requinto at Goodwood to pull us out of the fire. The final figure was PLUS 17.8 pts.
So that’s THREE WINNING months in a row.
Plenty of good racing to come too.
The SUPPLEMENTARY BETS were again in good form with 10 winning races from 13.
S don’t lose faith. I’m convinced this system is still as good as the day it was first published, almost 60 years ago. Despite the forced alterations to the plan.
