Referee stats – useful for football betting

Howard Webb
Howard Webb © GEPA pictures

REFEREES.    

Sir Alex’ favourite people.

There have been many changes of personnel since I last looked at the Professional Game Matchday Officials,to give them their correct title.

Gone are such “favourites” as Mike Riley, Who is now “chief cook and bottle washer” of the outfit. Kevin Stroud, Rob Styles, Alan Wiley and Steve Tanner, have also moved-on.

By far, Howard Webb is now considered our best official. Indeed he is held in the highest esteem by the governing bodies of both FIFA and UEFA, as his prominent appointments have shown.

He leads a bunch of people who are looked down upon by almost every supporter in the land. Unjustly.

Referees make mistakes just like everyone else. Occasionally that mistake changes the course of the game. Unfortunately. Of course then there is a clamour for the poor bloke to be moved off the list, excommunicated and banished from the country.

No one seems to consider that players often make worse mistakes, with even more dire outcomes. The ball goes thru’ the ‘keepers legs. The full-backs back pass, makes it as far as the oppositions lurking striker, with the logical conclusion.

A shot on goal is going wide until the defender decides, for no fathomable reason, to take the lace out of the ball and concede a penalty. These things happen and are quickly forgiven and forgotten by the supporters. But the referees refusal to give a “nailed-on” corner is the main topic in every discussion until the next weeks game.

These guys do a job not many would volunteer for. Until we have up-to-date technology to hand this will be the status quo.

So next time you think about having a go at the referee, why not have a go at the F.A. and other ruling bodies and get them to change their stubborn “No Technology” stance. If enough supporters clamoured for change it will come. Sooner rather than later.

Referees, despite what we think, are fairly consistent. Below are card stats for the last three seasons.

                        Games Yellows Reds Yellows Reds   
                                           Average Average
                                               Per Game.

Mike Dean       2008/09   30   116     6     3.9    0.2
                2009/10   30   114     6     3.8    0.2
                2010/11   30   104     2     3.5    0.1

Mike Riley      2008/09   23    89     4     3.9    0.2

Steve Bennett   2008/09   22    78     0     3.5    0.0
                2009/10   29   108     5     3.7    0.2

Andre Marriner  2008/09   21    74     4     3.5    0.2
                2009/10   28    97     9     3.5    0.3
                2010/11   27    97     3     3.6    0.1

Howard Webb     2008/09   34   119     5     3.5    0.2
                2009/10   28   101     3     3.6    0.1
                2010/11   29    95     2     3.3    0.1

Stuart Attwell  2008/09    5    17     2     3.4    0.4
                2009/10   15    58     2     3.9    0.1
                2010/11   14    51     2     3.6    0.1

Chris Foy       2008/09   24    82     3     3.4    0.1
                2009/10   26    69     2     2.7    0.1
                2010/11   27    74     3     2.7    0.1

Lee Mason       2008/09   16    54     3     3.4    0.2
                2009/10   22    62     6     2.8    0.2
                2010/11   23   103     3     4.5    0.3

Steve Tanner    2008/09   11    37     3     3.4    0.3

Martin Atkinson 2008/09   26    85     6     3.3    0.2
                2009/10   32   126     5     3.9    0.2
                2010/11   25    84    11     3.4    0.4

Michael Jones   2008/09   12    40     3     3.3    0.2
                2009/10   20    64     1     3.2    0.1
                2010/11   26    83     3     3.2    0.1

Phil Dowd       2008/09   30    97     6     3.2    0.2
                2009/10   29    87     5     3.0    0.2
                2010/11   30   111     9     3.7    0.3

Rob Styles      2008/09   26    78     5     3.0    0.2

Alan Wiley      2008/09   28    81     2     2.9    0.1
                2009/10   26    81     5     3.1    0.2

Lee Probert     2008/09   11    26     0     2.4    0.0
                2009/10   22    74     6     3.4    0.3
                2010/11   27    73     5     2.7    0.2

Keith Stroud    2008/09    5    12     0     2.4    0.0

Peter Walton    2008/09   27    66     3     2.4    0.1
                2009/10   27    66     4     2.4    0.1
                2010/11   26    88     5     3.4    0.2

Mark Halsey     2008/09   28    39     1     1.4    0.0
                2009/10    1     0     0     0.0    0.0
                2010/11   20    39     1     1.9    0.1

M. Clattenberg  2008/09    1     0     0     0.0    0.0
                2009/10   31    84     5     2.7    0.2
                2010/11   23    62     4     2.7    0.2

Kevin Friend    2009/10   12    40     4     3.3    0.3
                2010/11   19    65     6     3.4    0.3

Anthony Taylor  2009/20    2     5     0     2.5    0.0
                2010/11   13    50     3     3.8    0.2

Neil Swarbrick  2010/11    2     3     1     1.5    0.5

Jonathon Moss   2010/11    2     6     0     3.0    0.0

Michael Oliver  2010/11   17    56     2     3.3    0.1

 

What do these stats tell us? Mainly that, despite what various managers and pundits would try to make us believe, referees, in general, if not in particular, are consistent. Only one referee has a seasons average of, yellows per game, above 3.9.

These figures cover fifty-four season totals /averages, in all, and only in seventeen of those totals does the “average” figure drop below THREE. So despite many misconceptions, the “man-in-the-middle” is very consistent in his deliberations.

It’s easier to get a good average figure for yellows rather than red. To do justice to “reds” it would be necessary to go down to at least three decimal points. Even then it would not provide us with much more info that we could use on a match by match basis. The possibility of a RED in any game is more likely to be apparent by checking previous match returns. The Merseyside Derby immediately jumps to mind. Twenty reds in twenty games.

As with any set of stats, they can usually prove more useful when used in conjunction with other figures. Matches which have previously returned below average YELLOWS  would once again look a likely choice for a low score if Mark Halsey was to be in charge. Whereas, local derbies with a less lenient man in charge would well be considered for a “high count” of cards.

Matches with a “history”, Man. Utd versus Arsenal being a good example are always there with the possibility of a bundle of cards being issued.

Delving into past results will often give a better insight to the cards possibilities of any match than a referees own stats. Always remember, it’s the players who “earn” the cards, not the referee. He’s just there to see fair play.

Last season’s “new boys”, seemed to acquit themselves quite well. No outcry as with a certain Stuart Attwell a season or two back. Despite all those protestations, he too seems to now be accepted as “one of the boys”.

Remember, bet sensibly. Only with money you can afford to lose.

 


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