Reliable stats (part 1)

Football Leagues and Stats

As we are heading towards another season, full of hope, I want to look at league stats we can rely on.

In the dim dark days of the past, Home, Away and Draw percentages were accepted as being consistant at 50%, 25% and 25% respectively. But how that has changed. Just look at these figures. Home 38.6%, Away 34.6% and Draw 26.8%. Quite unbelieveable, espescially the first two. Now look at this set. Home 47.2%, Away 19.1% and Draw 33.7%. These are the present figures for Northern Ireland Premier  and Brazilian League, respectively. How can we begin to compare them to the old long held figures? How can we best use them?

From the stats at my disposal, there are only eleven leagues with a home % of 50 or more. So obviously there must be some teams in there with considerable potential to be good HOME possiblities, and  for us to  be able to use them to our advantage.  It may be coincidence but the three leagues with the worst HOMES record are Northern ireland Premier, Irish Premier and Irish Div. 1. Maybe it’s something in the air. For me  these are three leagues to confine to the Out-tray. There is only ONE "big" league that can boast of a better than 50% HOMES RECORD. That is Italy’s Serie "A". even that is only 50.5%.

The DRAW STATS are in some instances encouraging. Where 25% was a long thought of expectation we now have a HIGH of 35% in the MLS. Seven leagues average over 30 % and a further 20 average over 25%. The thing that occurs to me is that we can begin to look for some sound DOUBLE CHANCE results with these figures. Whilst this may not appeal to some people, always remember a Profit is a Profit.

There is of course an alternative to this and that is to use these figures to find some good AWAY LAY bets. AWAY STATS start as low as 19.2% in the MLS. There are sixteen leagues where the AWAY average is below 25%.   Another set of stats some bettors will find of interest will be the UNDER/OVER 2.5 Goals.

Pride of place goes to the Serbia Super League with 67% of games UNDER 2.5 goals. There are another eight leagues who boast 60% and over for UNDER 2.5 goals. At the other end of the scale we have ICELAND Div 1 with only 31.3% of games UNDER  2.5 goals. Therefore their OVER 2.5 goals is 68.7%. Altogether there are eleven leagues with over 55% of games scoring OVER 2.5 goals per games. The final set of stats is about GOALS PER GAME. Top of the table for GOALS PER GAME is the Austrian Bundesliga with 3.27 goals per game. Three other leagues boast over 3 goals per game.

Altogether thirty three leagues boast over 50% of games with more than 2.5 goals per game. As I’ve been checking thru’ fifty three leagues, that leaves twenty below 50%. This includes the PREMIERSHIP (2.48), THE CHAMPIONSHIP (2.45) and LEAGUE 2 (2.49). Looks like we’re losing out in the GOAL stakes.


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