Reliable stats (part 2)

Football Leagues and Stats

Reliable Homes.
 
Outstanding in this field is the Norway Div 1. Here the Home win percentage is over 57%. They also tend to have plenty of goals in their games. With three out of five going OVER 2.5 goals. The average goals per game is 2.7.
These figures would suggest teams with a good home record, especially those that tend to score for fun, should be part of  any HOMES strategy.
Aways are slightly better than draws @ 23.5%. The 19.3% of drawn games include just NINE goal-less draws. That’s little better than 7% of the games played. Ideal for those who like to LAY 0 – 0 scores. 
 
Next in line is the Croatia 1. HNL.
Here the Home advantage is 53.3%. goals are also plentiful here, too. An Average of 2.65 per game with 50.3 games going OVERS.
 
Followed by Romania Liga 1. Here 53.1 of games are home wins. However defences would appear to have the upper hand. Goals per games are only 2.31 and 61.6% of games go UNDER.       
 
Czech Gambrinus is the next in the list of Good Homes.
Their winning percentage is a tick short of 53%. Given that their draw returns is almost 27% those of you who have a liking for DOUBLE CHANCE bets are looking at an overall figure just a couple of ticks short of 80%. A good base to work from.
Here again defences appear to hold the upper hand. 57.5% of games ending UNDER 2.5 goals. Average goals per game being 2.42. 
 
 
ICELAND DIV 1. This seems to be a league were goals are there for the taking.  However just  52.2% percent of games go to the home side but the draw average is well below par. Form seems to work out pretty well. Where home teams are quoted at less than 2.00, they have a winning percentage of 67%. (19/28). Away figures are almost identical at 66.7% (6/9).
It’s the goals figures that are interesting. Four and five goals a game are plentiful. With the odd six or seven and even an eight.
It does appear that a home team that can score goals regularly are a good bet. The down side will be, of course, that the price on offer may well be a little cramped.     
Drawn games are few and far between and GOAL-LESS draws are much more of a rarity. Under 4.5% ending goal-less. Laying the draw would seem to be a choice here, if you can find some IN-PLAY games. 
 
 
Amongst the "Big Leagues" Italy’s Serie "A" comes out best on the HOMES front. At 50.5% they are almost 2% better than their Spanish counterparts.
As we have come to expect, goals can be scarce in many Italian games.
However there are quite a few games that go the other way, as the goals per game average of 2.6 shows us.
With a draw percentage of 25% away sides are just about able to claim one win in four games.      
As expected, UNDERS is king here, with 54.2% of games ending that way.
4.2 % of games ended GOAL-LESS. In fact, 101 games featured less than TWO goals. That’s a little over 26.5%.
 
SERIE "B" is even tighter. 44.2% homes and 31.6% draws. Aways don’t quite make 25%..Unders are more "popular" as can be expected, at 57.6%. Average goals-per-games is fairly low too, at 2.39.
 
THE PREMIERSHIP, is as we can all testify, a very tight affair.
Homes and Aways totalling almost 75%. That leaves Draws at the long-ago expeced figure of 25%.
Goals per-game are fairly low at 2.48 so as expected UNDERS is on the high side at 52.1%.
Goal scoring seems to be the main problem, especially for away sides. In a touch over 70% of games, they failed to score more than ONE goal.
Home sides weren’t very much better. They managed to score THREE or more goals on only sixty three occasions. there were forty-two goal-less draws out of ninety-seven draws.
What conclusions can be drawn from these stats is hard to say.
Caution must be the watchword.  
 
THE CHAMPIONSHIP is said to be the hardest English league to gain promotion from. The stats actually bear this out.
Homes 43.3% Aways 27.4% and Draws 29.3%. There’s nothing n these figures to give any kind of indication for building a strategy around.
Approximately 70% of HOME wins are 1 – 0, 2 – 0 or 2 – 1. May be something here for Correct Score enthusiasts. However be aware. From what I’ve seen, any set of scores may tend to "bunch". This bunching effect
could work against you just as easily as for you.
UNDERS are 54.7% and average goals per game, 2.45.  
 
LEAGUE 1. has a pretty dismal HOME WIN record. Just 42.8%. However the AWAY figure is quite high 32.4%. Average goals per game is high too, 2.75.
Overs is good as well at 51.6%.
For me, this is a league to leave alone.
 
LEAGUE 2. Has an even worse HOME record than it’s " big brother". Just 41.3% Home wins. However it does have a better DRAW return @ 29.5 It is in the Top Twelve in the Table. Two "ticks" about The Championship in thirteenth place.
Here again, I’d be more than happy to sit back and check the results, rather than try and forecast them.  
 
All stats are for last season, except where Summer Leagues (Scandinavian, South American etc, which are "as is") are concerned.


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