Reliable stats (part 3)

Football Leagues and Stats

DRAWS and AWAYS.
 
I won’t include any league that hasn’t completed at least FIFTY MATCHES. (Eight Leagues in total.)
 
Where prices (odds) are quoted I have used BETFAIR.
 
The theoretical odds for any outcome in any game is 33.3%. As we know the actual figures differ greatly
 
However the MLS (AMERICA), bucks the trend of most leagues. In fact only seven leagues can boast of 30% or more drawn games.
MLS is unique in another way. It’s only composed of fifteen sides. The only league made up of an odd number of sides.
MLS has a Draws return of 33.8%. Thirty-six of the so far, forty-four draws have been 1 – 1 or 2 – 2. Just slightly better than one in ten drawn games were goalless.
UNDERS stand at 56.9% which whilst not being outstanding, nevertheless sees them in the top third of the table. So a couple of well matched teams look the likely source of draw bets.
The AWAYS figures are rather pathetic. In fact, their 20% is the worst of those in the table.
Obviously looking for Away winners is difficult but any team that can score goals regularly must be considered.
The Goals per games average is 2.56, putting them in the top half of the table.
Another point to consider is that only TWO sides have been ODDS-ON when playing away. Both on the first day of the current season.
It would appear that good sides have the upper hand in this league. A "good" team at home to a "poor" team is unlikely to throw  a spanner in  the works. Not rocket science, I know, but the unexpected does happen all too often in other leagues.
 
BRAZILIERO.
The Brazilian league is THIRD in the OVERS table, with 56.6% of games ending Over and again THIRD in the Average Goals per Game, table. With 2.94 goals.
We tend to think of Brazil as the ICON of football. As such results going to form would be the expected norm. However this just isn’t true. Of sixty home teams @ odds-on,  only thirty three were successful. However nineteen of the remaining games were Draws. Perhaps, something for the DOUBLE CHANCERS to ponder.
No team were @ odds-on when playing away.
Here again, it would appear that the teams to back are those that are capable of scoring, whether home or away.
 
ITALY SERIE "B".
Here the DRAWN games are much more in evidence than in "Serie "A". Here with 31.6% of games drawn, they are second in the table. As expected their UNDERS total is high @ 57.6%. Also as expected Goals per Game are low @2.39.
 
IRISH (EIRCOM) DIV 1.
The AWAY figures here are outstanding.42.1%. Draws are a miserly 18.7%. How do these figures help the punter? Not very much I’m afraid. Although there does seem to be a glimmer of hope with Away teams @ odds-on. There have been sixteen such games and the favourite won on twelve occasion.
You do tend too get a few high scoring games. However, UNDERS come out on top @54.2% and Goals per game are 2.53.
There were thirteen way wins & 3.05 or more.
Don’t expect to get much higher than 2.5 for a HOME win. 
 
IRISH (EIRCOM) PREMIER.
Very little difference with the above. AWAYS 39.2%  UNDERS 56.9% and Goals per game a dismal 2.20.
There were nineteen AWAY winners @ greater than 3.00. The HOME winners were mainly returned at less than 2.5.
There just doesn’t seem to be any respect for the form book in these two leagues.
Both are best left alone.  
 
SWEDEN (SUPERETTAN).
This league has the second best AWAY record. (40.8%) When coupled with the Home record, (not great at 40.0%) there is little left for the DRAW merchants.There were only eight 0 -0 games out of a total of 120.(6.66%) Ideal of course for LAYING THE DRAW.  There are a few goals in most games with OVERS @ 53.3%. Goals per game average out at 2.82.
 
I will look at some favourite strategies next time. Hopefully I can offer some tips to spice-up some a few of the old favourites.
 
Be lucky but be DISCIPLINED.


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