Tips for Betting on Summer Leagues – part 2

Football Leagues and Stats

Tips for Betting on Summer Leagues – part 2
(Norway Tippeligaen, Norway Div 1, Finland Veikkausliiga, Finland Ykkonen, Iceland Premier)

Carrying on from last time.

The table-toppers win a Champions League Qualifying spot.
Second and third each play a Europa Cup qualifier.
Bottom two are relegated and the fourteenth placed has a relegation/promotion play off with the third /fourth/fifth placed in Div 1.
Pretty much to form, Rosenborg are in pole position. Still undefeated after twenty-one games.
Bottom placed Lyn (Oslo), look out of their depth and certain relegation fodder.The other two vital positions (14 and 15), could go to any of half a dozen sides.
Stromgodset’s home form is vastly superior to their disasterous away form. ( two points from eleven games).
Games tend to be pretty tight in general. 1 – 1 is a very popular score in this league.

First and second gain automatic promotion with the next three teams having a playoff with the Tippeligaen fourteenth. Bottom four are relegated.
The top is pretty tight amongst four sides and three of the bottom four look "home and dried".
Alta, Ham Ham and Transdalen have good home form despite their middle of the table form. Notodden’s home form is quite good too, it’s their away form that’s put them down on fourteenth position.
Not a very inspiring league.

There’s a Champions League Qualifier for the League winners. Second, third and fourth get a Europa Cup spot. Thirteenth side have a Relegation/promotion play-off with Ykkonen runner-up. Fourteenth placed side are relegated.
Sixth placed Tampere’s home form is outstanding. However, like many Scandinavian sides they don’t "travel".Their away form is abysmal.  VPS on the other hand, have lost more home games than anyone else.
The top of the table is quite tight. Only two points separate the top three sides.
The bottom three sides are " out on their own". However despite being bottom of the table RoPS need only to find a small improvement in their away form to move away from the  automatic relegation spot

The second tier also have a fourteen team line-up.
Top team gets an automatic promotion. Runner-up has a Play-off with higher division’s thirteenth placed team.
Bottom two are relegated.
The first two places are quite tight whilst third placed KPV are only in that position thanks to their away form. Another side with much better form on thier travels is Hameenlina. If AC Oulo  get their act together when playing away, they can quite easily overtake the current leaders.
Sides with home form that belies their positions are, KooTeePee, Klubi 04 and TPV.
Relegation looks like a fight between the current four bottom sides. Atlantis’ home form must make them clear favourite for bottom place.

A small league of twelve teams. The season is well into the last furlong.
FH require five points from four games to become Champions and gain a Champions League qualifying spot. Second and third sides get a Europa League qualifying spot.
They will almost certainly be KR and Fylkir. IBV require three points to ensure Fjolnir and Trottur R drop down a level.
Games do tend to go to form. With away wins well below average.

In most leagues, at this point in the season I’d leave the top and bottom quarter of each table alone and use the remaing games for my bets. Always assuming, any game(s), looked value for money.

How do you decide your homes, aways and draws?
There must be as many ways as bees around an open jampot
Many years ago, about the time Robin Hood got his Bus-Pass, I avidly read a monthly publication called, The Sporting Investor. A5 size it slid nicely into the jacket pocket to be brought out whenever I had a moment to spare. It was basically a magazine of systems. Many of them were just "filling" for the odd piece of good advice. However there was a particular contributor who also wrote a couple of books with some weird and wonderful methods in them. Not really systems but methods of reducing a large number of selections to a size that could be handled easily. He went by the name of PROMATH.
He believed in covering as many outcomes as possible. Especially football matches.
A HOME win would have a DRAW as it’s alternative outcome. A DRAW would have a HOME as it’s alternative and an AWAY would have a DRAW as it’s alternative.
Taking this at face value three matches would have only eight possible outcomes instead of twenty-seven.
Other ideas don’t translate easily to todays games but allowing for a little poetic licence, never LAY a HOME side and rarely BACK an away team.
A team is more than likely to repeat it’s last result.  Now add this thought to the idea of ALTERNATIVES
and see how nearer you are with your match forecasting.
Next time I’ll look at some more strategies.