Saturday 28th May 2016 Kickoff 1945hrs
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid
Football – Champions League – Europe
Saturday see’s the culmination of nearly 10 months worth of blood, sweat, tears and sheer exertion for both Atletico and Real Madrid, and their quest to become champions of Europe. In a repeat of the 2014 final – when Real sealed their 10th European Cup title – neither team were considered to be favourites to reach this stage but that does not detract from what should be another fascinating clash between two bitter rivals. The San Siro hosts its first Champions League final since 2000, and in a surrounding that is well used to big derby games, it is the perfect setting for this particular encounter.
It is virtually impossible not to admire what Diego Simeone has done during his time in charge of Atletico. His style of football may not be to everybody’s liking but you simply cannot ignore his achievements. Not only did he seal the club’s first domestic title in 15 years when they got the better of both Real and Barcelona in 2013/14, Saturday sees Atleti contest their second Champions League final in three seasons. They may have missed out on another La Liga in the final couple of games, but this (winning the Champions League) appears to be their biggest aim from the outset, with memories of their agonising loss to this same opponent still very prominent. There have been significant changes in terms of personnel between this team and the won that finished runners-up a couple of seasons ago, which is further testament to how impressive Simeone and his coaching staff have been to get back to this occasion. There is no Courtois, Miranda, Turan or Costa this time around, virtually the spine of that successful team but, if anything, this current version look to be even better.
No team has won more European Cups than Real Madrid and Saturday presents them with another opportunity to increase their tally. That being said, you would have got a decent price about Real reaching this stage only three months ago. The sacking of Rafael Benitez at the turn of the year and indifferent league form, particularly away from home, under Zinedine Zidane, it never looked likely that they were capable of reaching the final. That’s probably helped them in all honesty, as they have been able to go about their business with much less expectation than usual. Barcelona and Bayern Munich had long been favourites for the competition but Real – whilst not being at their best – have found a way to win games and that’s all you can hope for in knockout football. Roma, Wolfsburg and Manchester City have all been dismissed since the Champions Leagued reached the last-16 stag – they also won every home game in this season’s competition without conceding a goal, illustrating where their strength has been. Saturday’s game presents an entirely different challenge to anything they have faced this term and will prove to be the ultimate test of how much improvement there has been in this team under Zidane.
Whilst Real’s passage to this stage has been pretty kind, the same can certainly not be said for Atletico. Despite requiring penalties to see off a stubborn PSV team in the round of last-16, Simeone’s men have been excellent in despatching Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the quarter and semi-finals respectively. In both those ties there was an energy and authority about their performances that were so evident in their run to the final two seasons ago, but they were outshone by their desire to get a result on both occasions, no matter what. Bayern and Barca are the two best footballing sides in European football but they could not get the job done against the best defensive outfit, and that should be celebrated every bit as much. And, with the pace and ability of Antoine Griezmann on the counter, they are a threat to anybody.
There was a concern around the fitness of Cristiano Ronaldo after a training session this midweek but the slight niggles will certainly not keep the competition’s all-time top scorer out of this one. The Portuguese sensation is going for his third Champions League medal and aiming to score in his third final. Already the top goalscorer in this year’s competition too (with 16 goals, seven clear of his nearest rival) talk of his diminishing powers has been extremely premature. One thing he would like to improve on, however, is his record against Atletico. His goal in the 2013/14 final came from the penalty spot in extra time and he has *only* scored 15 in 24 appearances against them. If he were to notch a brace on Saturday he would break his own record of 17 goals in any one Champions League season.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Betting Tips
Anybody who took the time to read my Champions League preview back in August will hopefully have taken my advice and backed Atletico to win it outright at odds of 20/1. If you have, then you may well just feel like sitting back and hoping for the less glamorous of the Madrid teams to pull off the victory, but I’m got another angle I want to get involved with.
Two points was the difference between the two clubs in La Liga this season which indicates how closely matched they are. Atletico came out on top in the two meetings with a 1-1 draw at home followed by a well deserved 1-0 win at the Bernabeu in February. It was that performance which led to many people doubting Zidane’s credentials as Real Madrid manager but he has responded emphatically, not least with the 2-1 win over Barcelona at the Nou Camp.
This will be the third straight season that the two rivals have met in the Champions League and Real have the edge with last season’s quarter final success quick on the back of their 4-1 final win after extra time. Will it be third time lucky for Atletico? I actually think it will be. Their route to the final has demonstrated just how good a team they are and their overall recent record against Real should also give them confidence. That being said, I fancy them to win it outside of the 90 minutes. Three of the last six meetings between the two have resulted in draws and I can see this being similar. As well as backing the draw after 90 minutes, I advise backing Atletico to win in extra time and on penalties. Some may see this as being foolish considering the ante-post position but gambling is about having an opinion and I firmly believe Diego Simeone and his players will be celebrating a famous victory on Saturday in Milan.
Draw 21/10 @ Betfred
Atletico to win in extra time 10/1 @ William Hill
Atletico to win on penalties 10/1 @ Betvictor
