Dinamo Zagreb Vs Bodo/Glimt
Dinamo Zagreb Vs Bodo/Glimt Wednesday, 24 August 2022 – 20:00 (BST)
UEFA Champions League Qualification
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 8/11
Bookmaker: WilliamHill
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 21 August 2022)
Preview: A slender 1-0 aggregate lead is what Bodo/Glimt – bidding to become the first Norwegian representative in the Champions League group stage for 15 year – will be taking to Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb, for this deciding leg away to Dinamo Zagreb.
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Table of Contents
Dinamo Zagreb – Strong home form cause for optimism?
For the best part of an hour in last week’s first leg, Dinamo Zagreb were as much a spectator as the 7,762 fans in attendance at the Aspmyra Stadion. However, Ante Cacic’s team would eventually establish a foothold in proceedings, and would arguably finish the contest out in Norway as the stronger side. Seeing a Bruno Petkovic effort chalked off for offside as well as creating a few openings in the closing moments.
“We will still be favourites at home and I hope we will be more successful then,” remarked the Dinamo Zagreb coach post-match. That hope stems from a formidable home record in Europe that has seen the 23-time Croatian league winners record three wins across their last four in the capital. Meanwhile, going back further, to the start of the 2020-21 season, Modri have won 10 of 17 European home games (D5 L2).
Key Stat: Dinamo Zagreb warmed up for this second leg by scoring five in a home league game versus Osijek (5-2 win) on Saturday. With that the fourth home fixture in a row, league and Europe, in which they’ve netted four or more.
Bodo/Glimt – Norwegians must buck dreadful away trend?
A one goal lead is all the Norwegian champions had to show for at the end of a largely dominant first leg performance. Amahl Pellegrino’s stooping header from close range proved the difference and was one of only two efforts the hosts hit the target, from 18 attempts. Bodo/Glimt enduring a rare profligate home outing. The question now is: will such a slim advantage suffice in carrying them through to the group stage draw?
Having already sustained defeats in the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland, to KI Klaksvik and Linfield respectively, in Europe this season, the answer to the above isn’t exactly reassuringly positive. In fact, for how impressive they are at home – the first leg marked a 13th successive European home win – Bodo/Glimt are equally as atrocious on the road, winning only once on their travels in their recent 17 attempts (D7 L8).
Key Stat: Bodo/Glimt have managed one clean sheet in their last 11 European away games and conceded in all three of this season’s Champions League qualifying away legs, to teams from Faroe Islands, Northern Ireland and Lithuania.
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Dinamo Zagreb Vs Bodo/Glimt Betting Advice
I’m expecting a more lively second leg. Bodo/Glimt’s away record in Europe has been covered above but, as poor as they are usually, do typically score, doing so in 9 of the last 12 said fixtures. Meanwhile, Dinamo Zagreb’s six competitive home games this term have seen a total of 32 goals. The hosts failed to record a single clean sheet though, giving up two goals on four occasions. 8/11 about Over 2.5 Goals feels generous.
Dinamo Zagreb Vs Bodo Glimt – Key Facts:
- The tie is finely poised at the midway stage. Dinamo Zagreb will be confident of overturning a 1-0 deficit, however, after winning half of their ten (W5 D4 L1) European home games since the start of last season.
- Bodo/Glimt have found wins elusive away from home in European competition, registering one victory across 11 away matches (D5 L5) since the start of last season, which includes losing four of the most recent five such games.
- There has been four or more goals in all six Dinamo Zagreb home matches this season (games played in Europe and domestically). All of these games seen both teams score.
If forced into choosing a match winner, then Dinamo Zagreb’s record as hosts in European competition suggests they can turn this tie around. In 17 European home games since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Croatians have won 10 times with six of these coming by a 2+ margin. Conversely, Bodo/Glimt have already suffered some embarrassing away defeats in Europe this term and don’t typically travel well.
Best Betting Odds – Dinamo Zagreb Vs Bodo/Glimt
Dinamo Zagreb – 10/11 (WilliamHill)
Draw – 14/5 (Bet365)
Bodo/Glimt – 3/1 (BetVictor)
