2018/19 Premier League Probabilities after eight games

How the odds have shifted since the start of the season

Manchester City

The Premier League title race looks like a genuine two-horse race. That’s actually a lot more exciting than it was last term when Manchester City just strolled their way to the title. It has been Liverpool who have come out of the blocks to push the Citizens in their title defence.

But springing a surprise has been the rejuvenated Chelsea who have kept pace after eight games. But can they genuinely sustain a title challenge?

At the start of the season, it was Manchester City running as outright favourites, with Liverpool firm second favourites in the title race. But that was almost two months ago and form dictates how the odds are riding now in the Premier League title race.

The season is almost a quarter of the way through with eight games down and now is the time when the league is really taking shape.

Here we compare the odds from the start of the season to what they are standing at now as the season heads into the October International Break.

How do things shape up in terms of probability and the chances of each of the big six getting their hands on the title?

Premier League Winner Odds*

Man City 4/6
Liverpool 9/4
Chelsea 9/1
Tottenham 33/1
Arsenal 40/1
Man Utd 100/1
Wolves 500/1
bar 1000/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm)

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Manchester City

August 1st 8/13
Currently 4/6
Implied Probability 60%

They went into the season as a strong option to make it back to back title wins. It was a walk in the park for them last season but they haven’t been able to yet shake the attention of Chelsea and Liverpool who are level on points with them. The Citizens took an important point in a draw at Liverpool just before the international break in October and that renewed punter’s belief that they can win the league again.

They suffered at Anfield badly last season, but not this time around. The strengths are still there, they have learned. They have a couple of tough games coming back from the break against Spurs and Manchester United. Those have both been a bit off colour, so we could see City starting to exert dominance.

Prediction: City look to have far more depth at their disposal than Liverpool does when it comes to a long season. They may have to grind a little more than they did last term as teams have wised up to them a bit more. Still, we see them getting the title win and they are currently 4/6 odds to do so* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).

Chelsea

August 1st 14/1
Currently 9/1
Implied Probability 10%

What a surprise package the Blues have been. The club looked to be in a bit of a mess over the summer with a managerial dance between getting rid of Antonio Conte and getting Maurizio Sarri from Napoli. It’s all settled down tremendously quickly for Chelsea really who have kept pace with City and Liverpool.

It’s been a dramatic turn around after they looked so short of quality last season. Sarriball clearly has its merits and place in the Premier League. Sitting at 9/1 odds at the intentional break* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm), they haven’t been shorter to win this season’s Premier League.

Prediction: Chelsea really don’t look as if they have the depth to throw together a title challenger, but that’s probably not the goal. Just getting back to the top four is and we can see them pulling that off and the bookies agree as the Blues are 1/4 for a top-four finish* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).

Liverpool

August 1st 9/2
Currently 9/4
Implied Probability 30.8%

Liverpool came flying out of the gates racking up the wins and standing toe to toe with Manchester City. But just before the international break they had posted just a D2 L2 record and their intensity looks to have dropped. They are more conservative than they were this season, Jurgen Klopp recognising perhaps that their defensive faults let them down last season.

But the slight switch in tactics has had an effect on output. Their power trio of Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino’s haven’t delivered the scoring threats like they did last season. It may just all be a bit of fatigue after a busy World Cup summer for a lot of players. But there’s enough quality in them to come good, but will it be enough to see them get the title?

Prediction: They haven’t looked tactically as strong this season and haven’t been playing to their strengths. Because of that, they could come up short again unless Klopp lets them off the leash. A Man City/Liverpool straight forecast is at 6/4 odds* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).

Tottenham

August 1st 12/1
Current 33/1
Implied Probability 2.9%

Tottenham suffered back to back defeats against Watford and Liverpool in October which was straight after a brilliant win at Old Trafford against Manchester United. That is the problem with Spurs this season, peaks and troughs. They have looked hit and miss and overall a bit jaded in their performances compared to the levels they were at least season. Will they pay the price for not strengthening their squad over the summer?

Prediction: Spurs are solid and for the most part consistent. But the issue is that there hasn’t been any improvement, any step forward from them. So we like the 6/5 odds on them to NOT finish in the top four* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).

Arsenal

August 1st 25/1
Current 40/1
Implied Probability 2.4%

Unai Emery has started to impress at Arsenal after having stepped in Arsene Wenger’s shoes. They had a tough start in back to back losses against Man City and Chelsea but they haven’t been affected by those setbacks. They are on a six-match winning streak in the league and right now look better than Tottenham, their London rivals. It could be a good scrap between those two for a Champions League place.

Prediction: Arsenal are certainly starting to look refreshed and rejuvenated under Emery and with a bold exciting new approach in playing two strikers, they are backable at 6/4 for a top-four return* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).

Manchester United

August 1st 13/2
Currently 100/1
Implied Probability 1%

No Premier League title for Manchester United this season it would seem. Their current odds imply a 1% chance, a huge shift from the 13/2 odds that they had been backed into by punters just ahead of the start of the season. It has been disappointments, disarray and confusion at Old Trafford. They don’t look anywhere near being title contenders and will have a hard battle to get into the top four. Is Mourinho going to drag them down or turn them around? It looks as if it will be a continued rollercoaster ride at the club.

Prediction: The Red Devils are at 4/11 to NOT finish in the top four this season and that says it all* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm). They should have enough about them to get in the top six as they boast international quality in their squad. We just don’t see them having enough fight to get in the top four.


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