Betting on the first / next goal – Cyril’s betting advice (part 14)

Betting on Goals

A Few Oddities.

How annoying can it get? Your team takes the lead and then throws it away. Maybe to lose or just to draw. Nevertheless it does happen quite often these days.
I find that it’s more likely to happen to an AWAY TEAM than a HOME TEAM.( However don’t let this put you off backing a home team). One team that springs to mind is Middlesborough. They seem to make a habit of it. So far this season, they’ve scored first in 10 games, but only won 5 of them. Man City are no better. Their record is identical.
In most major leagues, there is a small  number of who fit into this same category.

Obviously to take advantage of this happening you would need to be using a Betting Exchange (like Betfair) which has the game running "in play".

Once a goal is scored, the odds offered on both teams will change. Often dramatically. (I am amazed, at times, at the over re-action by punters when a goal is scored). Almost inevitably the team that has scored will now have odds below evens.
With the usual attention paid to recent and historical form, I feel sure that there is money to be made in this area.

The stats for teams who fail to score first can be used in a completely different manner. Let’s look at teams who have an indifferent record when it comes to taking a lead. With most teams, this will happen when they are playing away. Would you fancy a team in the bottom half of the league, away to a team in the top four, scoring first, when they only have a 25% record for scoring first. Surely a fine chance to punt on the, NEXT GOAL, being scored by the home team.
There are a few teams in each of the major European leagues who have records which cry out for you to back against them.
In Spain, OSASUNA have scored first in only 6% of their games. Italy’s Chievo, 18%. these are outstandingly bad records. However I would think any side with 30% or less, as first goal scorer, would  be a good bet, to concede first, especially when away from home.                               

Is it exclusive to the Premiership, or does the New Manager Syndrome work in any other leagues?              
Spurs brought in Harry Redknapp and almost instantly their fortunes took a big turn for the better. Sunderland parted company with Roy Keane and their two games since Ricky Sbragia took over, have yielded 8 goals and 6 points. Now we’ve seen Sam Allerdyce replace Paul Ince and immediately they reduce their negative goal difference by 3 goals. Not forgetting Newcastle United. Since they brought in Joe Kinnear, they’ve lost only 1 of their last 9 games.  "What is it that brings about such an upheaval in all known form?   Being a cynic of the highest order, I would think that any side being short of points should just get themselves a new manager. If only it was that easy tho’


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