Early and late goal scoring – Football Betting Strategies with Goals

GOALS. EARLY and LATE.

Betting on Goals

There are many strategies which evolve around GOALS being SCORED.
Naturally the timing of these goals can be crucial to many of these strategies.
As can the actual scores for the complete match. A breakdown of the most popular scores will give some idea of where to look for the likeliest profitable chances to occur.
The six most popular actual match scores in last years PREMIERSHIP were:

 0 - 0
 1 - 0
 2 - 0
 1 - 1
 2 - 2
 2 - 1

Season 2009/10

 2 - 1
 1 - 1
 2 - 0
 1 - 0
 0 - 0
 0 - 1

Season 2008/09 

 1 - 0
 0 - 0
 2 - 1  
 1 - 1
 2 - 0
 0 - 1

These scores are in order of Popularity.
Out of the eighteen scores, only Four would qualify for OVER 2.5 bets. Some food for thought.

Season 2010/11.  
In total 56.36% of matches ended in one of these six scores. All six of these scores favour the home side, in as much as none of them are losing scores for the HOMERS.
Other scores over the whole season,in games in which the HOME team DIDN’T LOSE, were 18.93 % in total. So we have a position where 75% + of games are going against the visiting sides.

Season 2009/10.
Here only the top five scores go against the AWAY side. However add in the next highest score (3 – 0) and the percentage is 54.16
The next highest AWAY winning score is 1 – 2 (5%).
The AWAY sides won only 23.94% of their games. Winning one more game than in the following season.

Season 2008/09.
Here again only the top five scores favour the HOME side (i.e. No defeats).
Over the season the AWAY sides did much better than the following two seasons winning 110 games. ( 28.94%).
The best returns for some time.
The main conclusion to be drawn is that any scoring strategy is best based around the HOME team. Or is it?

There is plenty of need to delve further into the scoring habits of all teams. However attention must be paid to defensive records too.
(The team to give away the smallest percentage of goals at home last season, was………BLACKBURN ROVERS. Fourteen teams had an inferior goals against column. And they lost only 5 home games all season). So it really does pay to delve down in the stats and look beyond the obvious.
The fewest goals conceded away from home last season was shared by Chelsea and surprisingly Fulham with 20 a piece.
If only Fulham had a prolific striker.
Any strategy on goal scoring needs to take into consideration both teams likelihood of CONCEDING as well as SCORING.

There are so many stats to consider that it’s tough deciding where to start.
Perhaps if we start with the number of times each team scored first in the last 3 seasons when HOME and AWAY.
In no particular order.

                         2010/11             2009/10            2008/09

                      Home     Away.      Home     Away       Home    Away

W.B.A.                  7        5                              8       2
Fulham                 10        6          8        4         13       3
Stoke City             10        4         12        7         11       4
Bolton Wanderers       11        6         11        6          9       6
Wigan Athletic          6        7         10        7          9       6
Liverpool              15       10         16        7         10      12
Blackburn Rovers       11        8          6        7          8       5
Aston Villa            11        9         10       11          6      10
'Spurs                  8        7         15        9          9       6
Sunderland             10        7                             11       6
Man. City              13       12         12        5         17       5
Man. Utd               19        7         14       11         16      13
Everton                11        6         10       10          9      11
Arsenal                11       11         12       12         12       9
Newcastle United       12        6                              7       3
Chelsea                15        4         16       12         12      13
Wolves                 10        8          4        6

As far as the current season is concerned it will be sensible to wait for some time before considering the abilities of the PROMOTED SIDES.
RELEGATED sides are obviously not included.
In general it would appear safe to follow the “usual suspects” and expect them to take the lead in a majority of their HOME games.
A check of previous games between current opponents should help decide when or when not to rely on the home team in question.

What we can gather from these figures is that the HOME team is the likeliest scorer of the FIRST GOAL in most matches.
The surprise is ‘Spurs. Their record at home wasn’t so great for a team with EUROPEAN pretensions. Not surprisingly the other two teams with single figure returns, were in the lower reaches of the table.
Liverpool, Man. City and Arsenal were fairly useful away as well as at home. However in view of Arsenals player loses and their recent results, it will pay to hold a waiting brief for a few games.

Having knowledge of where the first goal is likely to come from is one thing. Tying it down to WHO and WHEN is another.

Below I’ve set out how often teams concede the first goal.

                      Season 2010/11       Season 2009/10       Season 2008/09

                      Home       Away      Home     Away        Home      Away

Aston Villa              6        10          7       6            8         9
Man. Utd                 0         8          5       7            2         4
Wolves                   9        11         12      12
Everton                  7        12          9       7            8         5
'Spurs                   8        11          2       9            6        12
Sunderland               8         9          5      12            7        10
Chelsea                  4        13          3       6            4         5
Arsenal                  6         8          6       6            4         8
Man. City                4         5          6      12            2        14
Newcastle U              5        12                              10        14
Blackburn R              6        10          9       9            9        11
Bolton W                 7        13          7      12            7        12
Stoke C                  9        14          5       8            6        13
Fulham                   6        11          9      12            5         9
Wigan A                 12        10          7      12            7        10
Liverpool                4         9          2       8            6         5
W.B.A.                  12        14                              11        14

Knowing which teams is the likeliest to score or concede first should make selection a little easier. As history has
a habit of repeating itself, it will probably prove most helpful to consult the HEAD to HEAD records of your chosen games.
Next time I’ll look at the TIME SPREAD of goals,Especially the timing of FIRST GOALS.
“There’s money in them thar nets”.


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