Who is going to be able to stop Raphael Nadal winning what would be his 11th title at the French open? That seems to really be the headlining question heading towards this year’s edition of the clay-court Grand Slam. Nadal’s record at the tournament is just simply overwhelmingly staggering.
With the Spaniard having produced another fine season on clay he is trading as the 2/5 odds-on favourite at Betfair* (betting odds taken on May 22nd, 2018 at 8:24 p.m.) to go and stand in the winner’s circle once again at Roland Garros. With the rest of the field looking just a little bit depleted it may be Nadal’s title to lose. He heads to the 2018 French Open as not surprisingly, the reigning champion.
Men’s French open winner odds*
Rafael Nadal 2/5, Alex Zverev 7/1, Dominic Thiem 8/1, Novak Djokovic 10/1, David Goffin 33/1, Juan Martin del Potro 33/1, Kei Nishikori 33/1, Marin Cilic 33/1, Stan Wawrinka 33/1, Hyeon Chung 33/1, bar 66/1* (betting odds taken on May 22nd, 2018 at 8:24 p.m.).
2017 French Open Review
After not having won the title in 2015 or 2016, Rafael Nadal would not be kept from winning his record 10th title at the French Open, as he swept his way to success 12 months ago. Nadal went into the tournament as fourth seed but he was always a front-runner to get his hands on the title. It was Andy Murray who was the top seed for the tournament and he produced a fine run as well before bowing out at the semi-final stage to former champion Stan Wawrinka.
There was no Roger Federer at the French Open last year, Novak Djokovic was in the mix, but with the injury problems that he was having during the season he never quite looked good enough to win outright in what would have been a title defence. Novak Djokovic went home at the quarter-final stage, leaving the final to be contested between Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka. Nadal swept his way easier to the title in straight sets.
2018 French Open Preview
Rafael Nadal is once again the strong favourite to win the title at Roland Garros. He is the one to beat and it is going to take something special to actually take him down. Nadal is back to world number one after his recent success in Rome on the clay. That was his third title of the season and all three of those have been on clay, which is a bit of an ominous sign for anybody else showing up at the French Open 2018. Nadal also took the Monte Carlo and Barcelona titles during this Spring swing of the clay court season. Last year on his way to winning the French Open, he won those two events as well.
So now we are not even half way through the year yet and Nadal has already gotten halfway to matching his six titles of last season. Last season before winning at Roland Garros Nadal won three clay titles, just as he has done this term. Nadal will take with him to Roland Garros a 23-2 win/loss record for the 2018 season. One of his two losses recently came on clay actually in Madrid when he was beaten by Dominic Thiem in the quarter-finals.
But then Nadal came back strong, as he showed up in Rome and beat Novak Djokovic in straight sets in the semi finals, before taking down young challenger Alexander Zverev in the final. So Nadal will be showing up in form and he is 7/2 odds at Betfair* (betting odds taken on May 22nd, 2018 at 8:24 p.m.) in a special market where you can back him to win the title at right without dropping a single set along the way.
So if Rafael Nadal is such a strong contender at the head of the market in French Open 2018 betting, then where is the value to be found in betting on the tournament?
Alternatives bets to avoid Nadal
Really the best options when it comes down to it is backing players to come through and win quarters. That will at least give you some leeway of other betting options on players to progress through the rounds without even having to be concerned about Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard is naturally going to be a strong odds-on favourite to win his own quarter. The thing about this season’s French Open, is that once again there is no Roger Federer taking part, Andy Murray is still out recovering from surgery and Novak Djokovic is in the game but still working his way back from injury and is nowhere near his top level. Milos Raonic also has pulled out through injury, so that really leaves the path wide open for Rafael Nadal to launch another powerful assault on the French Open title.
You realistically have Alexander Zverev as the main threat to Rafael Nadal in French open 2018 tennis betting. The young German is the 7/1 odds second favourite at Betfair* (betting odds taken on May 22nd, 2018 at 8:24 p.m.) to win what would be his first Grand Slam title. So far in his short career that 21-year-old hasn’t gone past the fourth round of a Grand Slam tournament yet. This will be just his third time in the main draw of the French open, having exited at the third round in 2016 and he suffered a shock first-round loss last year. So even though he is up there at the head of the betting market his track record at the big tournaments so far just isn’t there and is nowhere near comparable to the experience and success that Rafael Nadal has had.
But what is raising his stock is that he has won two titles this season and he has been producing very well on clay. He was a semi finalist in Monte Carlo, before following that up with the title on clay at the BMW Open in Munich, Germany. He then got his big title of the season so far at the ATP Masters 1000 Mutua Madrid Open beating Dominic Thiem in the final. Zverev did not drop a single set along the way to winning in Spain, and in Thiem, he beat the man who had knocked out Rafael Nadal. It was another excellent run on clay for Zverev when he appeared in Rome, making another appearance in the final, this time being stopped by Nadal. So really no other player on the ATP Tour at the moment, aside from Nadal is playing better than the young German on the dirt. Because Nadal and Zverev are the first and second seeds respectively, they would be kept apart until the final.
Dark Horse Contenders
Is there a threat to Nadal and Zverev in the field? If there is it’s not very prominent one. You look at the rest of the top four seeds, namely Marin Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov and it is hard back either of those with a great deal of confidence heading into the Grand Slam. Dimitrov has never been past the third round of the French open whilst Cilic produced best ever effort at the event last season by reaching the quarter-finals. Considering that Cilic has been to two of the last three Grand Slam finals (Wimbledon and the Australian Open) then he does make the most sense to warrant backing as the strongest dark horse chance if you were looking in that area.
Really from then on outside of the top four seeds you’re struggling to find a player who could potentially come through and win the tournament outright. Juan Martin del Potro is the fifth seed but has produced absolutely nothing on clay at all the season. Dominic Thiem because he is the only man to beat in Nadal on the clay this season is probably worth a flutter reaching the final eight, but that looks to be just about the limit of one of your options outside of Nadal and Zverev in the French Open 2018 betting market.
Predictions
Can the field stop Rafael Nadal? No, not likely to happen at the French Open 2018. Nadal is fit, Nadal is in fantastic form on clay, and he is at the tournament he absolutely loves the most. His track record there speaks for itself and we are going to tip him to come through the field and winning that remarkable 11 Grand Slam title at Roland Garros.
Zverev is definitely one, who based on current form who is likely to get closest to challenging Nadal, but if the two meet in the final then the Spaniard has all of the experience to handle himself against the young upstart there. Backing Zverev in the ‘Without Nadal market” may be a decent option to roll with. It may be boring, it may be predictable, but we just can not look past Rafael Nadal.
