Goal Scoring Time – Football Betting Strategies with Goals

Premiership - Goal spread - Last three seasons

Betting on Goals

There are many strategies built around the time goals are scored or conceded. With some teams scoring early in the game seem to be part of their D.N.A. Others are just as adept at conceding early goals. Unfortunately stats aren’t available on a Minute-by-Minute basis. I can however give a more than  useful offering of a 5 minute break-up. The figures below are from the last three seasons. The first figure being the latest. The Premiership teams are in no particular order.

              0/5    6/10  11/15  16/20  21/25  26/30  31/35  36/40  41/45
Aston Villa  1-3-2  2-1-0  6-4-2  3-4-2  3-3-3  1-3-4  2-4-3  2-1-3  3-4-4
Man. Utd     8-2-4  0-1-1  2-1-3  1-1-4  5-3-7  4-3-4  5-6-1  0-5-0  9-6-7
Wolves       2-2--  4-2--  2-1--  1-1--  2-3--  2-1--  0-1--  6-1--  3-1--
Everton      2-2-1  2-1-2  1-2-0  3-4-4  1-4-2  4-1-3  3-4-1  0-2-4  5-4-3
Sunderland   2-5-2  2-5-3  3-3-2  2-3-1  4-4-2  1-1-0  4-1-1  1-2-1  2-1-2
Chelsea      4-2-5  1-5-2  3-3-3  2-6-4  4-6-2  4-1-5  3-7-2  5-3-4  5-10-5
Man. City    4-5-1  4-3-2  5-1-6  3-4-3  2-1-3  6-3-4  3-4-3  3-6-2  3-10-4
Newcastle    1---1  2---5  3---1  4---1  4---2  1---1  3---0  3---1  7---5
Blackburn R  2-2-0  0-1-1  2-0-1  3-4-1  4-4-2  3-3-3  1-1-3  2-1-3  6-3-3
Bolton W     1-1-2  3-4-4  1-2-3  2-3-3  2-0-0  0-5-2  2-4-4  4-0-2  3-4-3
Liverpool    3-3-3  4-2-2  3-3-0  3-3-0  2-0-3  2-5-6  4-2-6  3-1-4  2-7-4
Stoke City   0-0-2  1-3-1  0-3-1  3-2-1  2-1-0  3-1-1  2-3-2  2-2-0  3-3-2
West Brom A. 4---3  2---2  1---0  4---0  0---0  2---0  2---1  3---4  1---0
Fulham       2-1-2  2-1-4  2-1-2  0-0-2  1-3-2  5-0-2  4-1-1  1-2-2  2-3-2
Wigan Ath.   1-1-2  2-0-1  0-4-4  3-2-2  4-0-0  1-2-4  1-4-1  1-0-0  2-1-4
Arsenal      4-1-3  3-1-3  6-2-2  4-5-4  3-3-3  3-8-3  1-4-0  5-5-5  5-8-5
'Spurs       1-2-1  3-3-3  3-5-2  6-1-2  1-0-4  4-5-5  3-3-1  0-2-1  5-7-2

These stats cover three seasons of 38 games each. So with the odd exception, they should be more useful for finding
teams NOT TO SCORE rather than the other way around.
Also, don’t forget that the 41-45 minute slot includes ADDED TIME. Gives the figures a bit of a boost.
All in all, I don’t think there are many surprises in the stats. It looks like a case of the usual suspects doing
the business when required.
The best use can probably be made in conjunction with Head to Head and Streaks.

Possibly of more use will be the SPREAD of second half goals. In general more goals are scored in the second half
of a match, anyway.

             46/50  51/55  56/60  61/65  66/70  71/75  76/80  81/85  86/90
Aston Villa  4-1-1  1-3-3  2-3-4  4-4-4  2-1-4  4-4-2  2-2-5  2-4-2  3-3-6
Man. Utd     4-4-1  1-6-2  3-6-6  5-7-6  3-6-4  8-4-3  4-6-4  10-8-3 6-11-8
Wolves       2-7--  2-1--  3-1--  1-3--  3-1--  2-0--  3-2--  1-2--  7-2--
Everton      5-2-7  3-5-2  0-1-0  1-4-6  1-0-1  4-3-3  4-3-3  3-7-3  7-11-10
Sunderland   2-2-2  3-2-4  1-2-1  0-4-0  5-2-1  1-4-1  3-1-3  0-1-4  9-5-4
Chelsea      1-4-8  3-6-5  4-9-4  4-8-3  5-5-3  1-2-4  5-7-2  7-4-1  8-15-6
Man. City    1-2-3  4-4-4  3-5-4  4-1-3  5-4-2  5-5-2  1-4-2  3-3-4  1-8-6
Newcastle    4---2  2---1  2---3  2---1  4---3  4---1  1---3  1---4  8---5
Blackburn R  2-0-0  5-3-1  3-1-3  2-1-2  2-5-5  0-4-0  1-3-0  4-3-5  4-2-7
Bolton W     2-2-2  4-2-1  1-1-1  3-2-1  6-2-2  3-1-1  3-2-4  2-1-3  10-6-3
Liverpool    7-3-3  4-2-3  1-6-3  5-4-7  5-2-3  2-4-4  2-5-6  2-2-7  5-7-13
Stoke City   6-2-2  5-1-3  1-0-3  1-1-1  2-3-2  1-4-6  1-0-4  6-1-2  7-4-3
West Brom A  3---3  6---5  4---3  2---3  1---2  6---3  3---0  4---3  8---4
Fulham       4-4-2  2-1-1  7-5-6  4-3-2  2-3-1  2-5-2  2-2-1  1-1-1  6-3-4
Wigan Ath.   1-0-2  2-5-0  4-5-1  3-0-1  3-0-1  1-2-1  4-3-3  2-0-3  5-8-4
Arsenal      4-4-5  3-3-0  7-6-4  0-3-5  4-4-7  3-2-2  4-4-1  4-8-3  9-12-13
'Spurs.      3-3-2  0-5-0  3-4-0  3-1-2  5-4-4  2-4-4  2-4-3  2-5-1  9-8-8

Well now we have a load of figures which on their own won’t tell us very much.
However if you intend to use them it means you’ll have to put some time in to compare them with current goal-scoring habits of the seventeen teams in the lists.
Whilst it’s not going to tell you exactly when a team is going to score it will help when you’re looking to tell
whether the team concerned is playing and scoring up to the standard expected by referring to these two tables.
The goals scored in any 5 minute period shows how well, or otherwise a particular team has been performing over 114 games. Arsenal have scored 34 goals in the last five minute period over the three seasons covered this only amounts to  2 goals in that period every 7 games.
In general teams score more goals AT HOME than AWAY. Although there is always a couple of sides who buck the trend.
Last season Arsenal doing so.
In my opinion it’s best to stick with HOME SIDES when using scoring stats.
If you can find a team that has been in the habit of scoring regularly in the middle portions of a first or second half, this might well be a sound proposition.
It’s also worth knowing which teams make a habit of having a barren patch and when.
Although it’s hard to guess just when a side might score, some sides seem to do the unexpected at regular intervals.
It will obviously be useful to use these stats in conjunction with other stats appertaining to goal scoring or conceding.

Knowing which sides are prone to giving away the first goal of the game can be a useful tool in the armoury. Also which teams are likely to concede first but fight back to at least obtain a share of the spoils.
Correct Score betting can prove very fruitful if you can find a way of covering the likeliest scores for a chosen game or games. Some teams seem to make a habit of winning/losing games by a certain scoreline.

There are many angles to using the scorelines to make a little (or big) profit. I’ll look at more of these next time around.

Don’t forget. Bet responsibly and only with money you can really afford to lose.


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