I have been checking a different slant on OVER 2.5 GOALS.
It may well be out there somewhere but I have yet to see it.
To use it will take a reasonable amount of digging but then didn’t the man say, "the harder I work, the luckier I get".
Up to a third of games end with less than 2 goals. So, obviously there must be two thirds that finish with 2 goals or more.
These are the games that interest me.
I’ve done some digging and come up with the following figures for various leagues.
Games with less than two goals.
Premiership 61 out of 273 22.4%
Spain Primera 60 239 25.1%
Italy Serie "A" 70 260 26.9%
Germany B/ liga 1 55 216 26.1%
France La Liga 80 256 31.3%
Portugal Super Liga 59 167 35.3%
Dutch Eredivision 51 225 22.7%
A check thru’ this weekends Premiership games shows a total of 91 out of 134 previous games between these teams have ended with 2 or more goals being scored.
That’s an average 67.9%. ( Six of the seven played so far, have turned in at least two goals).
These are the winter leagues that are most accessible "in-play" on the exchanges.
Basically what I look for is a match where neither side is likely to score in the first twenty minutes. At this point in the game the odds for OVER 2.5 goals should be up around 2.00 to 2.25. Given these conditions I back Over 2.5 goals. Now comes the boring part. I have to watch the match’s progress. I’m waiting until there are TWO goals on the scoreboard. It doesn’t matter who has scored the goals, just so long as there are two of them.
Next step is to smartly nip to the NEXT GOAL market. It will depend on the time the second goal goes in of course, but so long as it isn’t too late in the game, the odds available will be between 3.0 and 3.5. Those of you conversant with differential staking will realise that there is the opportunity for a decent profit with these odds. Also those of you who understand spreadsheets will have no problem staking to your advantage.
A basic 100pts bet @ 2.0 then 75pts @ 3.0, or better, is a sound starting point.
There my be some people who would prefer to back OVER 2,5 from the start of the game. That’s fine, just so long as you stake accordingly.
The choice of matches is the most important factor to be "sorted". Reference to head-to-head results are always a good pointer. (H2H.stats).
Another thing to look at is the teams that don’t seem to start scoring too early in their games. Along with teams who don’t concede early on.
Teams least likely to score an early goal.
First column ———- Number of goals scored in first 20 minutes.
Second column —– most goals scored at these times.
Portsmouth. 2 11 – 15 ( 1 goal ).
16 – 20 ( " ).
Fulham 3 1 – 5 ( 1 goal ).
6 – 10 ( " ).
11 – 15 ( " ).
Man U. 4 1 – 5 ( 2 goals ).
Birmingham. 5 1 – 5 ( 2 goals ).
16 – 20 ( 2 " ).
Blackburn. 5 16 – 20 ( 3 goals ).
Hull. C. 5 11 – 15 ( 2 goals ).
W.H.U. 5 1 – 5 ( 2 goals ).
16 – 20 ( " ).
Wolves. 5 1 – 5 ( 2 goals ).
Teams most unlikely to concede an early goal.
First column —————– Number of goals conceded in first 20 minutes.
Second column————- Most goals conceded at these times.
Liverpool. 2 1 – 5 ( 1 goal ).
11 – 15 ( 1 " ).
A. Villa. 3 6 – 10 ( 2 goals ).
Stoke C. 3 11 – 15 ( 2 goals ).
Chelsea 4 16 – 20 ( 2 goals ).
Spurs. 4 1 – 5 ( 2 goals ).
( 2 " ).
Bolton 5 1 – 5 ( 5 goals ).
Portsmouth 5 11 – 15 ( 3 goals ).
As with all my strategies, these are just the "bare-bones". Any strategy can always be improved-on.
Paper trial before putting down hard earned cash.
if you find a game that appears to be "made" for goals, don’t be afraid to go in early. I know many markets
will be offering under 2.0 before Kick-Off but there will be occasions when you will get 2.0 or even a touch above, before kick-off.
You just have to be "on the ball" to be ab le to take advantage.
