OVERS – Revisited

Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

Perhaps now is as good a time as any to take an up-to-date look at OVER 2.5 goals. With insurance. With this strategy, only 0 – 0, 0 – 1 and 0 – 2 will be losing scores. The basic requirement will be to find a match(es) in which the HOME side has a definite advantage, plus where the AWAY side has a propensity to find the net themselves. Although it might look as if going against the grain, I am wary of selecting a match were both teams are in the top quarter of their league table. These games all too often tend to go to the away team, when least expected. With some very unexpected results and scores.

Premiership returns for the last nine complete seasons and the present running totals for this season:-

Below column 2 gives the number of matches which returned the three LOSING scores.
Column 3 gives the total games played in the season.
Column 4 gives the percentage of column 2 against column 3.

Premiership - Overs (latest saisons)

Saison 0-0,0-1,0-2 overall matches Percentage
2012/13 37 240 15.4
2011/12 70 380 18.4
2010/11 51 380 13.4
2009/10 72 380 18.9
2008/09 89 380 23.4
2007/08 82 380 21.6
2006/07 85 380 22.4
2005/06 80 380 21.0
2004/05 77 380 20.3

In general, it can be expected that on an AVERAGE programme of ten games, eight HOME teams will find the net. Obviously there will be occasions when fewer teams do the business, just as there will be times when ALL 10 HOME teams oblige. A good rule of thumb is to wait for a weekend when the average of eight teams to score drops below that mark, then make a meal of the next set of fixtures. It really is a case of swings and roundabouts but a little research will give you the edge. Just don’t expect miracles.

The above figures show that home sides are scoring more often than in seasons past. Why? I’ve no idea really. Perhaps it’s just that attackers are becoming more prolific at finding the net or that defences are giving more away than they used to do. I favour the latter reason. The way sides line up with no more than two attackers surely points to the defenders making mistakes. Fewer attackers must mean fewer created goals. What is apparent is that there are chances for the shrewd punter to make some cash.

Below are a set of stats for Italy. Their figures are very similar to those of our Premiership.

Italy - Overs (latest saisons)

Saison 0-0,0-1,0-2 overall matches Percentage
2012/13 39 210 18.6
2011/12 94 380 24.7
2010/11 85 380 22.4
2009/10 70 380 18.4
2008/09 63 380 16.6
2007/08 73 380 19.6
2006/07 81 380 21.3
2005/06 68 380 17.9
2004/05 82 380 21.6

A comparison of the above two sets of figures show that there is very little to choose between the two leagues. In the seasons under review the Premiership home teams have failed to find the net on 643 occasion, whilst the Italians failed on 656 occasions. The overall averages for 9 seasons for the Premiership is 19.4% and for the Italians it is 20.1%. Not much to choose between either associations.

The natural thing to do is, of course, to research into a number of other leagues for a similar number of seasons. The obvious place to start is La Liga, Bundesliga, League One, Portugal Division One and Eredivision.

(This article was written on the February 8th by our expert Cyril but our editor was very busy and did not manage to publish until now. Sorry for that!)