Premier League goal scoring stats – football betting strategies with goals (part 2)

Betting on Goals

Football Betting Strategies with Goals (part 2)

GOALS GOALS GOALS AGAIN.

Goals are the lifeblood of football. However no matter how spectacular any one of them may be it only has the same value as one scrambled in.
The same thing applies to any match that we bet on. Whether scrambled or worked out like a piece of artwork the goals have only intrinsic value.
They only become valuable to us when they fit the picture of our current bet(s).

Premier League Goal Scoring Stats

Finding the correct score for any game is hard, so breaking down various ways to find a solution is a worthwhile way to spend your time.
Let’s look at teams which are more likely to score as the game progresses.
In the Premier League late goals have come from miserly Birmingham (13) to proficient Man.Utd (31). In terms of late goals (from the 60th minute onward) from total goals scored there are, as expected, a wide gap between lowest Percentage and highest. The side that score the greatest percentage of their goals late-on is, unbelievably, Bolton Wanderers. So if they are running goalless with half and hour to go, especially at home, it’s more that likely that they’ll be on the score sheet pretty soon.

Below are some stats which may help when searching for those late goals, or even Total Goals etc.

Column 1 Total goals scored so far this season.

Column 2 Goals scored at Home.

Column 3 Goals scored in the last 30 minutes. e.g. from 60th minute onwards.

Column 4 Percentage of late goals.

Column 5 Average of goals scored at Home.

Column 6 Average of goals scored Away.

Column 7 Average goals conceded at Home.

Column 8 Average goals conceded Away.

 
Birmingham City.  33   16   13   39.3   1.06   1.00   1.12   1.69
Arsenal.          63   31   21   33.8   1.82   2.19   0.76   1.31
Man. City.        50   28   16   32.0   1.75   1.38   0.69   1.19
Newcastle Utd.    48   36   19   39.6   2.12   0.75   1.35   1.50
West Ham Utd.     39   22   11   28.2   1.35   1.00   1.59   1.94
Blackburn Rovers. 40   20   13   32.5   1.25   1.18   0.88   2,35
Bolton Wanderers. 46   31   25   54.3   1.94   0.94   1.19   1.50
Liverpool.        46   29   14   30.4   1.81   1.00   0.75   1.59
Stoke City.       39   25   17   43.5   1.56   0.88   1.00   1.63
Chelsea.          58   29   24   41.4   2.00   1.71   0.63   1.00
Aston Villa.      42   23   16   38.0   1.44   1.12   1.06   2.18
Man. Utd.         70   42   31   44.2   2.63   1.65   0.56   1.35
Wolves.           36   24   14   38.8   1.50   0.75   1.56   1.94
Blackpool.        47   25   18   38.2   1,56   1,29   2.06   2.12
Everton.          47   28   15   31.9   1.65   1.19   1.29   1.19
Tottenham.        44   25   20   45.4   1.56   1.38   0.94   1.50
Sunderland.       35   20   13   37.1   1.25   0.88   1.19   1.65
West Brom Alb.    47   27   19   40.4   1.59   1.25   1.72   2.06
Fulham.           36   23   12   33.3   1.44   0.81   1.00   1.19
Wigan Athletic.   32   18   13   40.6   1.06   0.88   1.82   1.38

These goal scoring stats for the Premier League are up-to-date before games played Saturday 23rd April.

Next, of course, comes the BIG question. How to best employ the stats?
There are a number of ways to apply them. No doubt the more experienced amongst you will have their own favourites.
Some very basic ways may start by adding together the Average Goals Scored by BOTH TEAMS. Simple enough and easy to put together.
Secondly, add together the Average Goals Against for both sides. Again very simple.
A little more complicated would be to employ both the above TWO methods and divide the ensuing total by 2.
Getting into the swing of things try adding together the Average Goals Scored by the home side and the Average Goals conceded by the visitors. or reverse the process and add together the Average goals conceded by the home team to the Average scored by the visitors.
There are various ways to use the stats depending on the way you are betting. 
There are a number of strategies which can be applied to the stats.

Delve through these Premier League goal scoring stats and find a "stand out" figure. Everton for example concede a larger percentage of goals at home than they do away.
Of the seven sides who have scored more than 40% of their goals after the 60th minute only three are in the top five in the Standings. Two are in the middle ten and the other two in the bottom five.
Late goals are likely to be scored by any team but a little study will put you on to the likeliest of them.
Whilst these figures are a little late for this seasons use, Most teams in the Premier League perform to a standard. They are more likely than not going to repeat previous season’s figures to within an acceptable level. However once you have a set of figures to conjure with, it’s not a mammoth task to keep them up to date.

For my next task I intend to look at the early scores and find at least one suitable strategy to use with the figures.

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