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Premier League Winner 2018/19 Outright Betting Odds & Predictions

A look at the season ahead in the EPL title race

Premier League Betting

The start of the new Premier League season will be on Friday, August 10th, 2018 when Manchester United host Leicester at Old Trafford in an 8 pm kick off. The highlight of that opening weekend of the new season will be on Sunday though as new Arsenal boss Unai Emery will be hoping to plot the downfall of reigning Champions Manchester City at the Emirates.

That is the final game of the opening weekend of the Premier League 2018/19 season and what a cracker that should be. But of course, it is all about the long-term gain in the pursuit of the Premier League title and not just fleeting glory of winning a game here and there. The familiar faces are all back at the head of the betting in the Premier League Winner market at bet365 and here we break down the chances of each one getting their hands on the title.

Premier League Winner Odds*

Man City 8/13
Liverpool 9/2
Man Utd 13/2
Chelsea 14/1
Tottenham 16/1
Arsenal 20/1
bar 250/1
* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm)

Manchester City

The Citizens won the Premier League title unchallenged last season, finishing a country mile ahead of their bitter rivals Manchester United. The Citizens were quick into their stride over the summer in capturing Riyad Mahrez from Leicester, a move that was proposed back in the January transfer window but the Foxes were asking more than what City were willing to pay at the time. But the move has gone through and that is another weapon in Man City’s arsenal.

It could be a key one as well because Manchester City will be looking for a little more depth, and high-quality depth to balance out their campaigns on all fronts. City are the front runners for the Premier League title and while they aren’t likely to make wholesale changes over the summer a way to think about their chances of landing back to back titles, is asking yourself whether the rest of the clubs are going to do enough to close the gap on them? You know what is coming from Man City. They have set the bar to a whole new high level.

Liverpool

The Reds have emerged as Manchester City’s main challengers in the Premier League 2018/19 title race. Liverpool, who came home fourth last season as well as reaching the UEFA Champions League Final couldn’t sustain the challenge on the domestic front despite some strong displays. What let them down was lack of depth and when they realised the Premier League title was out of reach they naturally went all gung-ho at the Champions League title instead. They produced some impressive scoring power last season, second only to Man City in that department and their brash style under Jurgen Klopp is set to continue.

So why have they moved up in favouritism? It is because they have made some smart transfer moves in the summer already. They have got Alisson Becker from Rome as a new number one keeper as well as adding Naby Keita from RB Leipzig and Fabinho from Monaco. They also got themselves a huge bargain in Xherdan Shaqiri so they are clearly working on building up their depth, the one thing that was lacking from them last season. Their chances of better progress will be improved if they were to get a new centre-half, and that is the area where they do need a big improvement. But they are shaping up well in the pre-season.

Man Utd

As usual Manchester United are linked with just about everybody under the sun in the summer transfer market. Nothing has happened yet for them and we are wondering whether big moves are actually going to be made or not. They have shelled out a lot over the last couple of years with the likes of Paul Pogba, Romelu Lukaku and Nemanja Matic but they weren’t even close to reeling in Manchester City. So you have to be left wondering where that leaves them a bit and while they did come home second, their brand of football under Jose Mourinho left a lot to be desired.

It is going to be hard for the club to attract the big flair players really and you look at the likes of Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial, Alexis Sanchez and even Paul Pogba and wonder if they wouldn’t flourish more in a more positive environment. Unless they get a couple of really big marquee signings over the summer, United will be a solid contender for a top-four finish, but not a big challenger in the title race. They have been linked with the likes of Toby Alderweireld, William, Hirving Lozano and Ivan Perisic and the other names that have cropped up won’t inspire a tremendous amount of confidence that they can take things to the next level. Where is the star power coming from?

Chelsea

Chelsea had some big struggles last season under Antonio Conte who seemed to lose his way. It was certainly a long way short of the standards he had set out in his first season in charge when he lead Chelsea to the Premier League title. It has been a tough summer for Chelsea, with the club not sacking Conte until the start of pre-season training and then leaving new manager Maurizio Sarri with less than a month to get things together. Chelsea didn’t seem to be backing Conte in the transfer market so will they be behind the new man? They certainly need a shakeup. The 4/6 odds on them to get a top-four finish* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm) will symbolise a successful season for them.

However, Chelsea do look as if they could be more of a selling club than anything over the summer. Eden Hazard and Thibaut Courtois have been linked with a move to Real Madrid. Willian has been linked with Barcelona and Manchester United. Alvaro Morata looks as if he’s trying to pave a way out of the club and PSG seem to be in the market to get N’Golo Kante. So the spine of Chelsea could be torn apart. Will that leave them with trusting youth, or will they get the players Sarri wants? The Blues also have another problem in Thursday night/Sunday schedule because of the Europa League. If they just sacrifice that, then they can play their way into a top-four contention.

Tottenham

The Tottenham conundrum. Arguably they play some of the best football in the English top flight but they haven’t been able to get their hands on that title. They will have a struggle to do so again this season because of the power and depth that Manchester City have. Spurs can’t really match up to the Citizens in that department and again workload could be their downfall. The backbone of their team is Christian Eriksen and Harry Kane really and if injuries occur to those, do they have the backup to stay as highly competitive?

They aren’t going to change their style under Mauricio Pochettino, but it’s been good for the club that he has stayed there and they have managed to get Kane on a bigger contract. Spurs aren’t known for their spending really but they could use a couple of extra touches of world-class quality in and around the squad to bolster their chances on the domestic front and in Europe as well. We don’t see them doing enough in the transfer market, because they aren’t aggressive enough to make that much of a difference. The title is likely to stay out of their reach.

Arsenal

So what will Unai Emery do with Arsenal? It is an odd situation for him to be in having to replace Arsene Wenger after the Frenchman’s long tenure at the club. But this will be refreshing for Arsenal in a way as they fell short last season by a considerable margin both on the domestic and European fronts. The Gunners made early summer swoops for Stephan Lichtsteiner, Sokratis Papastathopoulos, Lucas Torreira and Matteo Guendouzi so Emery is looking to bolster the back line and the midfield area.

They probably are not going to go shopping for a big striker with them having picked up Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the January transfer window. The problem for Arsenal is that they fell so far back last season to the top four finishers in the league that it may take some time to get back up there in the mix. They will be in the Europa League group stage alongside Chelsea. It may be worth sacrificing that to rebuild themselves as a force on the home front first.

Top 4 Finish Odds*

Man City 1/16
Liverpool 1/4
Manchester United 2/7
Chelsea 4/6
Tottenham 4/5
Arsenal 2/1
Everton 20/1
leicester 33/1
bar 40/1
* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm)

If like most punters, you are probably suspecting that Manchester City are in line for another league title then that is going to diminish the chances of big value in the Premier League Outright Winner market at bet365. But you could look at the Top Four Finish market with the bookmaker to try and figure out who is going to be up there in the UEFA Champions League places for the following season. Naturally based off of how the bookmakers have lined up the odds on Liverpool and Manchester United, they are odds-on like City are to get a top-four finish.

We can’t argue with that but it leaves an interesting race between Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal for that other spot. Chelsea and Arsenal look to be pretty much in the same boat. They have new managers, both squads need something of a big overhaul and no-one is going to be entirely sure what is going to come from them. With Man City, Liverpool and Man Utd you know exactly what you are going to get. So would you value the slightly unpredictable Chelsea or Arsenal over the more stable Tottenham? Spurs are 4/5 to get themselves into the top four* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm) next season, but because their European campaign is going to be more intense than Arsenal’s and Chelsea’s we are going to oppose the Lilywhites.

Chelsea do seem to flourish when new managers come in and shake them up and that is exactly what they need this time around and so we are looking at the 4/6 odds on the Blues scraping their way to a top-four finish* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm). Sarri’s way is much in the style of Guardiola and Klopp and could make a surprisingly big impact. If you do want to get a little more specific with it all then you could go and look at bookmakers who are offering the Top 4 Exact Order. As if calling a Straight Forecast wasn’t hard enough.

Straight Forecast

This isn’t a bad option again if you do heavily consider that Manchester City could be head and shoulders above the rest of the field once again. If you treat them as the banker for the top spot then you are halfway there to predicting a premier League straight forecast. It would then be a matter of choice as to who follows them home in second place. It is a 4/1 odds option on it being Liverpool for example and 9/2 that it would be Manchester United* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm). If you want to sacrifice odds for risk then there is the option of a Dual Forecast of course.

Hedging the Premier League Title

Manchester City are 8/13 odds to win the Premier League Outright* (betting odds taken from July 19th, 2018 at 6:23 pm) next season. It’s not unreasonable to think that Pep Guardiola’s men will do it all over again given how strong they were last season. If you were set to oppose them through then you could create a Hedge Bet experience for yourself.

If you staked ÂŁ10 on Liverpool at 9/2 odds that would be a ÂŁ55.00 payout if the Reds won.
Then if you staked ÂŁ34.06 on Man City as a Hedge Bet at 8/13 odds you would get the same payout if City won.

So it means that whichever scenario that cropped up, you wouldn’t have to worry as you would have made £10.94 profit. Of course, Hedging does eat into your original potential profit. Naturally, a straight £55.00 payout on a win single for Liverpool is better than that smaller £10.94 profit, but you pay a premium to cut risk. Of course, there is also still the risk there that Manchester United or someone else could win it. Get your calculators out, double check your math and weigh up the risk and reward.


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