Premiership Betting – Correct Scores

Premiership for the last six seasons

Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

Correct scores are a way to making a good return from football betting for a small outlay.
However a little research is required before diving in with both feet.

2011/2012 Season.
The most popular scores are usually accepted to be  1- 0 and 2 – 0. Yet four teams failed to win 1 – 0 and another four teams failed to win 2 – 0. Similarly three teams failed to record a 0 – 1 loss, as did three teams fail at 0 – 2 loss.
At the other end of the scale there was one instance of a 4 – 3 and also one of 3 – 4. There were also five occurrences of 3 – 3 and  two of 4 – 4. Also only fourteen games ended 2 – 2. That’s 3.68% of the league programme. Less than one in twenty seven matches fall into this batch of scores.
There were 20 instances when there were FIVE or more goals in a match.
These figures don’t mean a lot on their own. But they will point to some basic facts when a few more seasons are added
to the study.
The “failed ” section, i.e. 1 – 0, 2 – 0, 0 – 1 and 0 – 2 for the current seaon is the highest for some time. However it still  amounts to a touch under one match in thirty finding itself in this group. Not really something to worry over to long. It can be expected that the return on these scores will amount to much less than one in fifty matches, using results over the past six seasons. ( It’s actually less than one in fifty five games).
The score amongst these four which has the lowest return is 1 – 0. Only THREE times has it not happened in SIX seasons. So for most “multi-score bets” 1 – 0 should be a BANKER.

When the scores at the other end of the scale are brought into the equation it will begin to clear a little of the fog from the picture.

The days when big scores could be expected on a regular basis, have long gone. Defences now usually have the upper  hand. In fact I don’t really think many goals are “made” these days. When you check how a goal “came-about” you will more often than not find that the defending team were at fault. Not always but more than not. Remember Q.P.R’s equaliser at the  Etihad?

 

Removing the larger scores from the picture gives more scope for a multi-cover bet. Even 2 – 2, can be safely discarded as
it has returned just 4.6% such games in the past six seasons. There is always a proviso, of course. Some clubs do tend to “favour” some scores, so a little digging is worth while to find any that do fit this particular bill.
In season 08/09 two sides, Hull City and Newcastle had FIVE such scores to their credit. Nobody else had better than  three. 09/10 season had Everton with five and W.H.U. with four. 10/11 had both Everton and W.B.A. with five while five other  teams had four such results. This may be the “awkward” score of the bunch. The one which takes pride in abiding by Sod’s Law. Checking previous head to head between the sides may be the way to help sort it out.

Discarding any team that scores five or more goals, plus teams with losing scores, we are left with fifteen possible scores.
>From these we can, with reasonable expectations, “take out” 4 – 3, 3 – 4, 3 – 3 and 4 – 4.

The next step is to find out often how the other score have occurred and when.

 

Hopefully this small table will be a lot of help. I was quite surprised as I put these figures together. Perhaps you will be too at some of them.

Premiership correct scores

  1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1 3 - 2 4 - 0 4 - 1 4 - 2 0 - 0 1 - 1  
2006/2007 75 48 62 27 29 10 14 8 3 34 45 79
2007/2008 74 57 50 17 30 9 12 13 3 26 52 78
2008/2009 73 50 61 25 28 14 9 9 3 42 34 76
2009/2010 59 50 61 26 24 13 14 9 4 32 39 71
2010/2011 54 43 64 28 30 17 7 5 7 25 52 77
2011/2012 53 51 64 28 31 18 12 6 3 27 45 72
  --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
  388 299 362 151 172 81 68 50 23 186 267  

Six seasons is really only a small sample but what is interesting is the way in which the scores are very close to each other, season after season. Apart from the odd blip, the occurrences of a particular score can be relied on, season on season, to  be within a small margin.
The final column is the two draw scores added together, over the season. Can you find anything more consistent than this?
The top six most proficient scores could well make a basis of a prolonged assault on the correct score market. An  occasional bet would almost certainly be a disaster. It’s amazing that when you go at something with less than all guns blazing, the inevitable happens.
A good spell of checking through the correct scores will pay dividends.
Another angle to consider, is that teams have a habit of grouping together certain results. Man. City’ five away defeats come to mind. Each defeat by just a single goal. The place where this is also very likely to show to effect is also in Head to Head results. Lightning does often strike twice where football results are concerned.

Don’t forget, Bet only with money you can afford to lose. Bet sensibly.


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